Societal determinants of flood-induced displacement

Here, researchers explore how core socioeconomic, political, and security conditions shape flood-induced displacement worldwide since 2000. Floods are a major source of human displacement, but variation in displacement levels across contexts remains poorly understood. Using high-resolution data on flood events worldwide, 2000 to 2018, researchers analyze the moderating influence of core societal characteristics on displacement. 

In-sample regression analysis shows that extreme displacement levels are more likely in contexts marked by low national income levels, nondemocratic political systems, high local economic activity, and prevalence of armed conflict. The analysis also reveals large residual differences across continents, where flood-induced displacement in the Global South often is much more widespread than direct human exposure measures would suggest. However, these factors have limited influence on the ability to accurately predict flood displacement on new data, pointing to important, hard-to-operationalize heterogeneity in flood impacts across contexts and critical data limitations.