Report 35 - How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission

This paper presents the possible trade-off between the education sector and other economic sectors in the control of SARSCoV-2 transmission. A dynamic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is integrated with a 63-sector economic model reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and economic interdependence between sectors.

The paper identifies control strategies which optimize economic production while keeping schools and universities operational and constraining infections such that emergency hospital capacity is not exceeded. The model estimates an economic gain of between £163bn and £205bn for the United Kingdom compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activity over six months, depending on hospital capacity. Sectors identified as potential priorities for closure are contact-intensive and/or less economically productive.

To do so, the authors project GDP, total disease incidence, and hospital occupancy for five scenarios:

• Scenario A (GDP max): maximizes GDP subject to five epidemiological and economic constraints; like any other sector, education may be closed fully or partly;
• Scenario B (education open): optimizes GDP subject to the five constraints; the education sector remains operational at or above 80% of pre-pandemic production (less than 100% to account for NPIs such as online teaching at universities);
• Scenario LDA (lockdown): imposes lockdowns of all non-essential activity across all sectors, including those of the education sector, at production levels observed during the initial lockdown period. Scenario LDA results in the lowest attainable infections but at high economic costs, and projects lower bounds on infections and GDP;
• Scenario LDB (lockdown except education): as LDA, except that the education sector remains operational at or above 80%;
• Scenario FO (fully open): the economic specification that leaves all sectors fully open for six months. It relaxes all epidemiological constraints but assumes NPIs and voluntary behaviour changes as captured by δ. Scenario FO results in the greatest GDP but at the cost of high infections and deaths; it projects upper bounds on infections and GDP. 

Please refer to pages 6 to 10 for results and the discussion. Pages 12 to 55 contain the figures of the study with their descriptions.