Mid-term early warning – anticipating crisis 6 months ahead

This report focuses on advancing towards an integrated mid-term early warning system that will aim at anticipating disasters and crises within a 6-month window. The ability to detect crises a few months in advance that are likely to have a major cross-sectorial impact is in high demand because it provides another opportunity to transition from reactive to proactive crisis risk management strategies.

This report aims to understand which expert groups in the Joint Research Centre (JRC) have skills to provide signals for crisis within this time window, collect knowledge within the same multi-hazard framework and identify challenges of midterm early warning to define the way forward. This report outlines the approach adopted for achieving Portfolio 25's objectives by harnessing existing forecasts and monitoring tools from JRC units specializing in an array of different hazards or their already manifested adverse impacts, such as: river flooding, armed conflicts, droughts, tropical storms, food insecurity, health, nuclear threats, and migration.