World Risk Report 2024 - focus: multiple crises

The WorldRiskIndex 2024 assesses the disaster risk for 193 countries. It covers all United Nations member states and more than 99% of the world’s population. In 2024, the risk hotspots remain in the Americas and Asia, hosting eight of the ten countries with the highest risk scores. Over the long term, however, these hotspots will shift to countries with climate-sensitive exposure and high vulnerability. The top 10 countries with the highest risk have changed only slightly: Mexico and Colombia switch places, with Colombia now having the highest disaster risk in the Americas. China drops out of the group and Pakistan moves up to 10th place. China’s descent from tenth to 22nd place shows that despite high exposure, overall risk can be significantly decreased by reducing vulnerability. China remains the most exposed country in the world, followed by Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines.

The country with the highest vulnerability is the Central African Republic, replacing Somalia. This year, Afghanistan has once again moved up into the group of the ten most vulnerable countries, meaning this group no longer consists exclusively of African countries. Germany improved slightly by four places and now ranks 98th in the world with a risk score of 4.1, placing it in the middle of the global rankings. The risk profile of many countries is shaped not only by extreme natural events and climate change but also by wars, conflicts, and uprisings. A special analysis based on the new Conflict Exposure Dataset by ACLED and WorldPop shows that Central and North Africa, South and Central America and South Asia are particularly affected by conflicts. Countries such as Colombia, Pakistan and Somalia each have high overall scores in the WorldRiskIndex and conflict exposure. By integrating other types of risk, like conflict or epidemic risks, indices such as the WorldRiskIndex can contribute to more holistic assessments and comparisons of risks. However, such integration implies methodological and conceptual challenges and cannot be achieved without revising the theoretical framework.