Weather Jiu-Jitsu: Prospects for atmospheric nudging to reduce catastrophic weather extremes

The essay Weather Jiu-Jitsu: Prospects for atmospheric nudging to reduce catastrophic weather extremes examines an emerging concept for complementing conventional disaster risk management by influencing atmospheric processes before hazardous weather events reach their peak. Drawing on advances in deep learning, nonlinear dynamics and weather forecasting, the authors explore how carefully timed, small-scale atmospheric perturbations could potentially redirect or weaken destructive weather systems under favourable conditions.

Rather than replacing structural measures, forecasting or financial risk transfer, the authors propose Weather Jiu-Jitsu as a potential future complement to existing disaster risk management strategies for reducing exposure to catastrophic weather events. Using proof-of-concept modelling experiments, the publication discusses applications including hurricanes, atmospheric rivers and blocking-driven cold extremes while acknowledging the substantial scientific, technical and governance challenges that remain before any operational implementation would be feasible.