Twelve ways to take anticipatory action to scale in conflicts and recurring crises

This brief uses ‘anticipatory action’ broadly to refer to actions taken in advance of an anticipated shock or crisis, however they are financed and whether they are implemented by humanitarian or other actors. Successful anticipatory action has mainly been achieved in an overall context of a functioning state, within an economy that remains largely unaffected by a disaster that is limited in scope and duration, and where there are markets that work.

These conditions exclude conflicts and recurring crises, which shape how natural hazards affect people, and also what actions are feasible, and who will benefit from any action. People are already living so near to the edge that it is difficult to find opportunities that can be opened by anticipatory action. Those opportunities need to be built first and the systems that support them need to be strengthened. This work, under labels such as disaster risk reduction, resilience building or risk-informed development, is often the foundation for anticipatory action. In places with conflicts and/or recurrent crises, it is not possible to replicate anticipatory projects that have been successful elsewhere, and anticipatory action cannot be planned in isolation. It must be part of an overall strategy of disaster risk management.