Training report on impact-based forecasting: a facilitation guide

This guide includes information, tools, short case studies and practical activities that provide actionable, useful and eventually impactful outcomes relating to the co-production of anticipatory action for displaced people. The guide also draws on lessons and case studies derived from the Istibak (“anticipate” in Arabic) project of the UK-funded Weather and Climate Information Services programme, which is aimed at strengthening the climate resilience of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), refugee populations and host communities in Iraq and Yemen through forecast-based early action.

The new guide says it’s designed to be integrated with the target audience’s existing work in recognition that some or many elements discussed are already at play within organizations working on anticipatory action, migration and displacement. It details key elements of co-production, stakeholder mapping and building partnerships for effective anticipatory action, including feasibility studies, risk assessments and early-warning systems and concludes with a checklist for implementation and recommendations for scaling up anticipatory action efforts for displaced populations. The facilitation guide supports trainers in delivering a comprehensive learning experience on impact-based forecasting for anticipatory action equipping them with the foundational knowledge, practical tools and collaborative strategies necessary to co-develop and implement effective early-warning systems that help in taking timely, risk-informed decisions.