São Tomé and Príncipe country climate and development report: Building resilience in a boutique biosphere country

This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) shows that ambitious climate action can protect people and livelihoods while unlocking new engines of inclusive growth. São Tomé and Príncipe is highly exposed to climate risks. Flooding already costs the country around 3 percent of GDP annually and could double by 2080. Sea level rise threatens the nearly three-quarters of the population living in low-lying coastal areas, while ocean warming and shifting rainfall patterns put fisheries and agriculture under growing pressure. Yet STP holds a distinctive competitive advantage: it is the world's first country whose entire territory is designated a UNESCO World Biosphere Reserve — a credible platform for accessing green and blue finance, attracting eco-tourism, and building high-value sustainable supply chains.

The report lays out two alternative futures. Under a business-as-usual path, the economy grows at roughly 3.1 percent annually, heavily dependent on public investment and aid, with slow job creation and persistent vulnerability to climate shocks. Under an aspirational scenario anchored in structural reform and climate investment, growth accelerates to 4.1 percent annually, GDP per capita rises nearly 29 percent higher than the baseline by 2050, and employment expands by 70 percent, turning climate adaptation into an important jobs agenda. The energy transition is among the most compelling near-term opportunities. Implementing the country's national energy decarbonization plan (reaching 50 percent renewable electricity by 2030) is projected to save more than US$600 million over the next decade, while reducing dependence on costly imported fuel. To realize this better path, the CCDR highlights priority investments across seven areas: climate-smart agriculture and fisheries; water security; resilient value chains for cocoa, spices, and seafood; coastal and transport infrastructure; clean energy systems; climate-resilient social services; and innovative climate finance.