Projections of tropical cyclone-driven storm-tide risk to critical infrastructure in the Bay of Bengal

This study employs a high-resolution, coupled hydrodynamic and wave model of the Bay of Bengal to simulate several millennia of synthetic tropical cyclones under present and future climate conditions. It quantifies nonlinear interactions among storm surge, tides, river discharge, and sea-level rise. 

The results reveal strong spatial variability, with wave runup, tide–surge interactions, and the interaction between mean sea level and surge emerging as the dominant processes. Using combinations of forcing states, the study generates a dataset of storm-tide levels at sites of critical infrastructure and estimates long-term (greater than 100-year) storm-tide return levels for both present-day and mid-century conditions. Future scenarios project reduced flood risk across the eastern Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, but increased risk along India’s eastern coast, where the Kovvada Atomic Power Project could experience up to a 78% increase in 5,000-year storm-tide levels.