PLINIVS-based seismic vulnerability mapping during volcanic unrest in Campi Flegrei: A replicable DRM model

This study presents a scalable methodology for seismic vulnerability mapping to support disaster risk reduction during ongoing volcanic unrest in Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy. It applies the PLINIVS first‑level survey method to more than 12,700 buildings, classifying 8,671 ordinary structures into vulnerability classes and generating spatial indices that highlight both cumulative and per‑building seismic fragility. The work integrates field surveys, GIS‑based data collection, probabilistic fragility modelling, and validation using post‑earthquake AeDES data and second‑level CARTIS assessments. By identifying areas with high concentrations of vulnerable buildings, the study provides an operational evidence base for anticipatory disaster risk management, including targeted mitigation and preparedness planning in a densely urbanised volcanic setting. 

The paper recommends using dual vulnerability indices, uncertainty metrics, and multi‑level validation to guide prioritisation of structural assessments and mitigation actions. It highlights the value of combining typological surveys with probabilistic modelling to support transparent decision‑making under uncertainty, and it encourages the adoption of replicable, cost‑efficient screening tools in other multi‑hazard volcanic environments. The authors emphasise that integrating rapid first‑level assessments with detailed second‑level inspections can strengthen long‑term risk governance, improve emergency planning, and enhance resilience in regions exposed to both seismic and volcanic hazards.