A participatory modeling framework for rapid estimation of loss and damage following flood disasters

The study proposes a framework that integrates participatory asset inventories, satellite image analysis, and impact modeling to provide decision makers with estimations of losses and damages within days of a flood event, once a sufficiently detailed flood footprint becomes available. The authors exemplify the approach using the case study of category 4 tropical storms Eta and Iota that struck the municipality of San Pedro Sula in Honduras within two weeks in 2020. The proposed framework is based on open-source tools that enable easy accessibility and scaling up, aligning with the requirements of rapid and scalable technical assistance needed to accompany climate diplomacy.

The results highlight both the methodology’s value and limitations. Modelled impacts generally exceeded reported values due to data gaps and modelling uncertainties, particularly for informal housing and drainage. Satellite imagery was also limited by cloud cover and acquisition delays. Despite these challenges, integrating technological modelling with participatory, ground-truthed validation provides an early, systematic basis for identifying priority impact areas and supporting faster post-disaster decision-making and funding allocation.