Micro-behavioral responses for enhancing urban flood resilience: Stated preference analysis of residents' evacuation choices in high-density urban areas

This study examines micro-level factors influencing urban flood evacuation choices among residents in a high-density area of Beijing, China. The authors surveyed 307 participants—who completed 4912 hypothetical choice scenarios—regarding their willingness to trade off risks, distance, traffic control, and organizational modes during a mandatory flood evacuation. The survey focused on the Tonghui River corridor, a flood-prone mixed-use zone, and considered socio-demographic heterogeneity, including age, gender, education, and length of residence.

The results show that residents’ evacuation decisions prioritize survival probability over minimizing travel time; safety risks at bottlenecks such as underpasses and river bridges significantly outweigh concerns with longer routes. Intelligent dynamic signals combined with government-planned routes are universally preferred. Older adults strongly favor community-led evacuation, while men, educated, and young respondents are open to longer distances and prefer walking over driving. The authors recommend prioritizing dynamic management of high-risk bottlenecks, using intelligent signals, and providing tailored information for different groups.