The inter-regional economic impact of the reduction in tourism following the Maui wildfires

This analysis examines the wider economic effects of the Maui wildfires by quantifying the statewide reduction in tourism spending in 2023 and 2024. Using inter-county input-output tables, it constructs a model to estimate the corresponding loss in economic contribution. 

The findings reveal a sharp contraction in Maui’s economy and trace negative spillover effects from reduced spending on Maui to other counties in Hawai‘i, particularly Honolulu. Relative to the 12-month pre-wildfire baseline, the tourism expenditure shock is estimated to have resulted in an average employment impact of approximately 18,000 jobs in Maui County between September and December 2023. This impact narrows to just over half that level, on average, throughout 2024.