Increasing droughts and associated uncertainties from 1982 to 2022

This study reports that global drought intensification is shaped by distinct driving mechanisms across climate zones. Specifically, in humid regions, precipitation is the main driver of drought trends and uncertainties with greater volatility emerging as precipitation becomes more erratic. These regions are increasingly “losing balance” under shifting precipitation patterns. In contrast, droughts in drylands are predominantly triggered by temperature-induced evapotranspiration demands, which are characterized by a more stable yet cumulative process that mirrors “accumulated risks under warming.”

These differences in climate-driven mechanisms not only affect the occurrence and characteristics of droughts but also determine the expression of uncertainties in regional drought assessments. Despite these discrepancies, datasets consistently show that the global drought trend has intensified in recent decades and is likely to intensify further in the future. The authors advocate for the advancement of drought assessments tailored to region-specific climate drivers and recognize that future efforts must better integrate regional diversity and climate mechanisms to account for shifting hydroclimatic influences.