Human mobility in the context of climate change in Madagascar: final report

This report examines the complex nexus between climate change and human mobility across the country. It analyses how projected climatic stressors, combined with demographic growth, are expected to intensify both internal displacement and migration flows. The report highlights substantial data and evidence gaps that constrain accurate forecasting of mobility patterns, drivers, and migrant wellbeing. To address these gaps, it adopts a mixed-methods research design, including a synthesis of existing literature, analysis of secondary data, key informant interviews, and original qualitative case study research. In addition, the study models prospective climate migration scenarios, projecting mobility trends for 2050 and 2080. 

The findings indicate that climate mobility does not consistently constitute a sustainable or successful pathway out of poverty, as migrants often face continued socio-economic vulnerability in destination areas. The report underscores the need for stronger evidence systems, forward-looking mobility planning, and targeted support mechanisms to improve migrant outcomes. It concludes by outlining key implications for climate adaptation, development planning, and mobility governance, emphasising the importance of integrated policy responses that address both fast-onset hazards (e.g., cyclones, floods) and slow-onset processes (e.g., droughts, sea-level rise).