Global rapid assessment of earthquake rupture and shaking

This paper presents a globally scalable framework for rapid earthquake rupture and shaking assessment, addressing the challenge of obtaining reliable information on rupture extent and shaking severity within the first tens of minutes after large earthquakes, particularly in regions with sparse seismic instrumentation. The framework combines real-time dense-array seismic observations, high-frequency multi-array back-projection, known fault geometries, global site-condition models (Vs30), and empirical ground-motion equations to derive rupture extent and physically consistent seismic-intensity fields within about 30 minutes of origin time. The approach was applied to the 2025 Mw 7.7 Myanmar earthquake and the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake.

The applications recovered rupture dimensions consistent with InSAR measurements, early aftershock distributions and macroseismic observations that are typically available only days later. The authors conclude that the framework enables operational, near-real-time mapping of rupture and shaking impacts worldwide, providing actionable information during the critical early response window. They recommend leveraging existing global seismic observation networks to support rapid hazard assessment, emergency management, tsunami and ground-failure assessments, and more equitable earthquake risk reduction in under-instrumented regions.