The future of poverty: Projecting the impact of climate change on global poverty through 2050

This paper presented global and regional projections of the potential poverty impacts of climate change through 2050, using a macro-to-micro simulation approach that links temperature-driven GDP shocks to household-level income and consumption data.

The findings suggest that under a high-emissions, limited-adaptation scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5), climate change could significantly slow progress in poverty reduction—particularly in regions with high baseline poverty, low adaptive capacity, and strong dependence on climate-sensitive sectors. The projections show that climate-induced income losses alone could push an additional 41 million people into extreme poverty by 2050.