Fingerprint of climate change in precipitation aggressiveness across the central Mediterranean (Italian) area

This report presents a long-term reconstruction of rainfall erosivity and erosivity density across the central Mediterranean area, with a particular focus on how changing precipitation aggressiveness reflects the fingerprint of climate change. Drawing on instrumental records, documentary evidence and a newly calibrated Rainfall Erosivity Mediterranean Model, the study examines hydrological extremes from 1680 to 2019 to understand how storm intensity, seasonal rainfall patterns and large‑scale atmospheric circulation have shaped erosion hazards. It highlights a marked shift in erosive behaviour since the end of the Little Ice Age, the resurgence of very wet days in recent decades, and the growing relevance of erosivity density as an indicator of climate‑driven hydrological risk.

The authors recommend integrating long historical time‑series into contemporary risk assessments to better anticipate future erosive hazards under warming conditions. The study underscores the need for high‑resolution climate projections, improved monitoring of short‑duration extreme rainfall, and the adoption of metrics—such as erosivity density—that more accurately capture damaging hydrological processes. Strengthening environmental management, prioritising soil conservation, and enhancing regional resilience are presented as essential steps, particularly as Mediterranean landscapes face increasingly erratic and intense rainfall events linked to climate change.