Evaluation of the economic impact of coastal erosion in Dakar region

This study investigates the economic dimension of coastal erosion in the Dakar region of Senegal, recognising that beyond its environmental consequences, climate change erodes the economic value of coastal zones. As erosion narrows beaches, it shrinks the areas available for economic activity and disrupts livelihoods, human settlements, and key sectors such as fishing, tourism, and industry — making an economic assessment of these impacts both timely and relevant. The study aims to identify the coastal areas in the Dakar region most affected economically in 2030 and 2040, and to pinpoint the localities that will require protective infrastructure to prevent future losses. The assessment estimates the economic value of the beach using multilinear regression, an econometric forecasting model, drawing on tools including R, Excel, ArcGIS, and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System.

The results indicate that, due to coastal erosion, the district municipalities along the Dakar coast will record losses estimated at 38,507,856,000 FCFA in 2030 and 57,822,698,000 FCFA in 2040. The analysis shows that a wide set of parameters shape littoral value — including beach width, lost areas, coastal length, dynamic rate, littoral areas, built areas, proximity to town, the coastal vulnerability index, the number of buildings, hotels, industries, and fishing points, and road length. Taken together, the findings warn that coastal erosion will rank among the most threatening disasters in the Dakar region if a "do nothing" option is adopted as the adaptation strategy, underscoring the urgency of targeted protective investment in the most economically exposed localities.