Disaster displacement risk in Guatemala: An overview of the risk of future displacement

Using IDMC’s updated Global Displacement Risk Model, the report estimates the likelihood and scale of future displacement under different climate change scenarios. The short risk profile synthesises information on hazard intensity, population vulnerability and exposure to identify displacement hotspots, key drivers and potential displacement impacts in Guatemala. Together, these provide a practical entry point for governments and partners to prioritise prevention and inform risk reduction.

Guatemala is exposed to multiple hazards, including storms, floods, earthquakes and volcanic activity, causing significant loss and damage including internal displacement. Between 2008 and 2024, the country recorded around 939,000 disaster displacements, most of them triggered by storms and floods. Climate change is expected to intensify these risks under both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.