Changing hazards, exposure, and vulnerability in the conterminous United States 2020–2070

This study evaluates fifty-year, multiple scenario projections of resource hazards and population change for the United States (US), using the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service 2020 Resources Planning Act Assessment to identify areas of concern based on hazard exposure and social vulnerability criteria. The research then evaluates the implications of these findings for climate adaptation and risk mitigation planning. The study projects how and where hazard exposure may change over the next fifty years and decompose changes into the portion driven by climate and population.

The results show that both climate and population drivers prove consequential. Water shortage projections show little change in spatial distribution but strong growth in the intensity of anticipated shortages. Wildfire projections show a structural change in pattern with emergent growth in wildfire extent in the southeastern US coincident with higher population densities and social vulnerability. High heat areas expand toward the north and east from the Southwest. Projections also show substantial growth in areas affected by two or more hazards and highlight where hazards correspond with high exposure and/or high vulnerability.