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Considering impacts associated to simultaneous perils: Integrating tsunamigenic and seismic risk within the R-CAPRA fully probabilistic loss assessment framework
The development of multi-hazard risk assessment frameworks has gained momentum in the recent past, aiming to provide a complete risk panorama at locations and portfolios exposed to the occurrence of different perils. Nevertheless, for a proper risk quantification, on which under or overestimations should not occur, a rigorous consideration of the losses caused by simultaneous events needs to be made, being consistent at the same time with the usual assumptions made by these models.
R-CAPRA is the latest version of the CAPRA risk assessment tool, a well-known, widely used and open-source and flexible software architecture program that has been adopted by UNDRR in the development and application of its Global Risk Model (GRM) since 2012. R-CAPRA has the flexibility to incorporate into the analyses perils of different types and its methodology is completely scalable, meaning that very detailed and high resolution, or less detailed and coarse-grain analyses can be performed. This tool incorporates state-of-the-art methodologies that allow the development of peril-agnostic and fully probabilistic risk assessments on different types of exposures and at different scales.
This paper presents the application of the methodology at two different locations in Latin America: Acapulco (Mexico) and Callao (Peru), where results are obtained in terms of commonly used risk metrics, besides hazard and risk maps, exemplifying how a similar methodology to the one followed by the GRM can be applied, at a more detailed scale (for the hazard and exposure components), and also providing a robust multi-hazard risk overview of the two domains under study.
The paper is subdivided into sections on which the methodological summary is included, followed by the application of the methodology in Mexico and Peru. Finally, the discussion of the results is complemented with some ideas around the integration of the methodology within the UNDRR’s GRM, aiming to make out the most from the currently available datasets and pointing out specific actions needed for the future integration of these perils by considering in a robust manner their interactions.
This paper is a contribution to the 2019 edition of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2019).
To cite this paper:
Ordaz, M. et al. Considering impacts associated to simultaneous perils: integrating tsunamigenic and seismic risk within the R-CAPRA fully probabilistic loss assessment framework. Contributing Paper to GAR 2019