Turkey: Using scenario-based software for risk management

In Turkey, a scenario-based disaster risk management application is a frequently used tool for testing the mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery capacity of national and local authorities. The Ministry of Interior, Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) and provincial directorates develop their skills for all phases of disaster risk management using scenario-based analyses and tests with regular drills organised at local, regional and national levels. AFAD-RED is an international software developed by the AFAD Earthquake Department in collaboration with scientists, with the aim of estimating the potential losses of an earthquake occurring in Turkey. The software has regularly been updated due to new calculation methods, revisions in databases, and technological developments.

AFAD-RED uses several databases such as administrative information (district boundaries), population information, building information (number of buildings and more), information on geology (active faults), USGS Vs30 speed map data, and Vs30 velocity information from AFAD acceleration stations. The main outputs of AFAD-RED are structural damage, the number of casualties, the need for temporary shelter service, estimated seismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity maps, and more.

AFAD-RED software contributes to the mitigation (preparation of national and local mitigation plans), preparedness (capacity development and needs analysis) and response (national and local response plans) phases of the disaster management cycle. The software is also compatible with National Disaster Management Decision Support System of Turkey.