The Guatemalan Red Cross has activated its early action protocol (EAP) for drought. It is now implementing pre-agreed actions to support those at risk from this hazard, which is linked to the emerging El Niño event.
The anticipatory actions are being supported by 546,439 Swiss francs (around 687,000 US dollars/593,000 euros) from the Anticipatory Pillar of the IFRC's Disaster Response Emergency Fund. These actions include:
- multipurpose cash transfers for 7,700 people
- water, sanitation and hygiene interventions for 3,500 people to ensure they have access to safe drinking water
- information for at-risk communities on how to reduce the risks associated with drought, and on adaptation approaches; these are being shared via the media and social media.
Expected to reach around 10,000 people over three months, the actions are targeting the households most vulnerable to the impacts of the coming drought, and in areas identified as having the highest exposure and vulnerability to this hazard, including Chiquimula, Jalapa, Quetzaltenango, Retalhuleu and Sacapulas. They will be implemented in coordination with national authorities, other humanitarian actors and members of the target communities.
Activating the EAP for drought
The EAP was triggered on 4 June, based on monitoring and technical analysis by the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). This indicated that more than half of Guatemala has below-normal precipitation outlooks for the June–July–August quarter, particularly in the Dry Corridor and other areas vulnerable to water shortages. Alongside this, forecasts indicated a high probability (more than 70 per cent) of El Niño conditions developing, meaning both trigger thresholds in the EAP were met.
The wider picture: a region acting ahead of El Niño
The activation in Guatemala is part of a growing wave of anticipatory action across Latin America and the Caribbean linked to this phenomenon. La Niña ended in early 2026 and the equatorial Pacific is currently ENSO-neutral, but the world's leading forecasting centres now firmly expect a transition to El Niño: the Climate Prediction Center puts the probability at 82 per cent for the May to July quarter, rising to 96 per cent by the turn of the year, with a forecast two-in-three chance of a strong or very strong event between October and February.
For a region where millions depend on subsistence agriculture, this outlook sharpens the risk of rainfall deficits, crop losses and water stress, particularly in the already food-insecure Dry Corridor and the drought-prone Caribbean. Several National Red Cross Societies are acting to get ahead of the expected impacts. In May 2026, the Salvadoran Red Cross Society activated its EAP for drought, and the Colombian Red Cross activated its EAP in June. Other organizations in the region are also activating their frameworks before the 2026 El Niño peaks.