The ENSO Outlook helps people turn climate information into anticipatory action
As the 2026 El Niño develops, the newly launched ENSO Outlook links climate data to floods, droughts and water risks, enabling early action and disaster mitigation.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is the planet’s most powerful natural climate driver: a recurring two-to-seven-year cycle in which sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific swing between the warm El Niño and cool La Niña phases, reshaping rainfall and storm patterns worldwide.
That cycle has now tipped decisively toward its warm extreme. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center confirmed in June 2026 that El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen. The stakes are high because, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long noted, El Niño years tend to disrupt monsoon rains, intensify droughts in Southeast Asia and southern Africa, fuel flooding across parts of the Americas , and — layered atop a warming baseline from human-driven climate change — push global average temperatures toward new highs .
The ENSO Outlook, a first-of-its-kind ENSO Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), is designed to turn El Niño and La Niña climate signals into timely, actionable measures. The platform is led by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), through the CGIAR Science Programs on Climate Action and Sustainable Farming. With its dedicated focus on farm-level preparedness and response to shocks, the platform is built to support governments, humanitarian organizations and development partners in managing ENSO impacts.
“Forecast information is now more available than ever, but availability does not automatically translate into preparedness,” said Director General of IWMI, Mark Smith. “The real challenge is helping countries and partners interpret climate signals alongside exposure, livelihoods and water risks so that early warnings become early decisions. ENSO Outlook is designed to support that shift — from watching climate anomalies to acting before impacts escalate.”
The ENSO Outlook responds to a growing operational challenge faced by many countries. While seasonal forecasts and climate bulletins are increasingly available from global, regional and national agencies, they are often difficult to use for integrated decision-making. Forecast maps may show rainfall probabilities, sea surface temperature anomalies or ENSO phase outlooks, but people frequently struggle to combine these signals with exposure, vulnerability, crop calendars, livestock conditions, water stress, food security risks and possible response options. For example, during an ENSO event, decision-makers need quick answers to questions like: Which regions are most exposed? Which sectors are likely to be affected? What is the level of confidence in the signal? When should preparedness begin? Which actions are justified at different lead times? How can ministries, disaster agencies, humanitarian actors and donors align around one shared risk picture?
The ENSO Outlook was developed to help answer these questions. It brings together forecast datasets , monitoring indicators , exposure information , impact-relevant layers , country bulletins , anticipatory action timelines and an artificial intelligence (AI)-supported briefing assistant in a single digital interface.
How to use ENSO Outlook
The ENSO Outlook platform provides several decision-support functions. Its map interface allows users to explore global and country-level layers, including precipitation probability forecasts, rainfall monitoring, dry spells, soil moisture, vegetation indicators and exposure information. The dashboard provides a global briefing on current ENSO conditions, including Oceanic Niño Index values, Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, model forecast plumes, probabilistic ENSO outlooks and comparisons with previous El Niño events.
For country users, the platform’s bulletin module translates complex datasets into a structured national briefing. A country bulletin can synthesize seasonal outlooks, forecast confidence, exposure levels, likely sectoral implications and recommended preparedness actions. Instead of requiring users to move between multiple websites, maps and bulletins, the platform creates a single evidence trail that supports discussion between technical agencies and decision-makers. The ENSO outlook is relevant for national ministries that must prepare for climate-related shocks before impacts are visible on the ground. For example, in Zambia, where drought, floods, livestock stress and water insecurity are recurring concerns, the ability to combine climate signals with sector-specific preparedness can support more proactive planning.
"Ministries need more than a forecast map; they need information that helps them decide what to do, where to focus and when to act. An ENSO decision platform that links seasonal outlooks with agricultural exposure, water risks and practical advisory options can help us strengthen preparedness for farmers, livestock systems and vulnerable communities."
- Stanley Banda, Chief Agricultural Specialist of Zambia’s Ministry of Agriculture
A central feature of ENSO Outlook is the Anticipatory Action Agentic Engine, built using Google Gemini Flash, which links climate signals to practical readiness timelines and helps users identify context-specific preparedness and response options. This makes it possible to identify what can be done at different lead times — from preparing drought-tolerant seed, livestock support and water supply measures to reviewing beneficiary registries, anticipatory finance channels and contingency plans.
For regional climate institutions, the platform offers a way to strengthen the use of existing forecast products by connecting them to localized decision needs.
"Regional climate outlooks are most powerful when they are connected to the decisions that governments and partners need to make."
- Ahmed Amdihun, Head of the Disaster Risk Management Program at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)
ENSO Outlook also includes an Ask AI feature grounded in IWMI datasets . Users can ask plain-language questions such as the current ENSO phase, El Niño and La Niña probabilities, where dry conditions are likely, how current signals compare with past events, or which indicators should be watched. The AI feature is designed to make technical climate and risk information easier to query, while maintaining clear guidance that users should verify critical figures against the underlying source data before formal decisions are made.
How the ENSO Outlook was built
The development of ENSO Outlook builds on IWMI’s wider work on early warning, anticipatory action, drought monitoring, water risk analytics and digital decision-support platforms, including tools such as AWARE, drought monitoring systems and climate risk dashboards. It also reflects CGIAR’s growing emphasis on integrated climate services that support national planning, agrifood resilience and shock-responsive systems.
"ENSO Outlook is not just a website; it is a decision infrastructure. Its value lies in helping partners move from fragmented data access to shared preparedness intelligence — the kind of intelligence that can support earlier action, better targeting and more coordinated investment before a crisis unfolds."
- Mark Smith, Director General IWMI
The next phase will focus on country-level engagement, partner validation and integration into preparedness processes. IWMI and CGIAR will work with national governments, regional climate centers, humanitarian agencies and development partners to refine country bulletins, strengthen sector-specific action protocols, improve data interoperability and support training for users.
As climate risks become more complex, the need for integrated decision tools will only increase. For this El Nino, the ENSO Outlook provides a practical pathway from global ENSO monitoring to national and regional preparedness. Its long-term impact will be measured not only by how well climate risks are visualized, but by how early governments and partners are able to act before shocks become crises.