The Future of Forecasts and Warnings with Dr Sally Potter
Time
2:00 pm–3:30 pm GMT+1
About
The communication of hazard-related information has advanced remarkably over the past few decades. Instead of focussing only on the science and monitoring indicators as the subject of messages, produced in a silo by a science agency, we are now fostering partnerships and communicating meaningful information with stakeholders to the public.
Recent events in New Zealand have taught us a lot about how to effectively communicate geohazard information. During Cyclone Gabrielle in February 2023, GNS Science trialled the communication of rainfall-induced landslide forecasts, as well as impact forecasts for that hazard to stakeholders. We have also communicated unrest and eruption forecasts for several volcanoes, including Taupō caldera volcano, which is currently in unrest.
The communication of impact-based warnings is becoming increasingly popular and encouraged, particularly in the world of weather warnings. What are these, and how effective are they in prompting a behavioural response? What are the biggest challenges we need to address, to progress impact-based warnings?
The environment is changing due to global warming, and people’s experiences with the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated different appetites for risk. There is exponential growth in technology and access to social media, allowing information sharing to reach unprecedented levels. In this evolving context, we must look to the future and forecast how and what we will need to communicate 5, 10, 20 years from now. In this way we can design our science and monitoring capabilities, as well as our partnerships and priorities, to meet the needs of society.
Speaker
Dr Sally Potter