Risk identification and assessment

El Niño can reshape weather thousands of miles away, bringing drought to some regions while increasing the risk of heavy rain and flooding in others. To understand why, you need to follow what happens to the Pacific’s warm water – and the air above it.

This research article explores future projections of burned area in Europe by assessing the influence of climate change and human actions.

As a record-breaking El Niño continues to grow, climate scientist Daniel Swain explains what may be in store for the next year as we brace for an El Niño “so far above anything we've previously seen, it doesn't even fit on the same axis.”

This study suggests that wildland-urban interface (WUI) disasters create a distinct post-disaster exposure regime characterised by persistent internal metal mixtures associated with pulmonary impairment months after the event.

This research quantitatively evaluates how historical landform modifications and urban expansion have altered rainfall–runoff behaviour and flood exposure.

The challenge for AI models to predict hurricane intensity is not just about obtaining more data, building better neural networks or deploying faster computers. It is also about understanding hurricane behaviors and how chaos in intensity emerges.

Antarctic radar observations improved Southern Hemisphere weather forecasts, reducing errors in atmospheric river predictions and enhancing estimates of winds, moisture transport and circulation in data-sparse regions.

Accounting for the accumulated effects could help governments better assess climate risks and plan adaptation measures, Concordia researchers say

Technical handbook for North Macedonia on risk and hazard assessment and protection and rescue planning, identifying gaps in coordination, methodology and data management; recommending EU-aligned, risk-informed approaches to preparedness and resilience.

The article explores the record-strength 2026 El Niño, its global impacts and links to climate change, while examining how terms such as “super El Niño” shape how scientists, media and the public understand extreme events.

This research article assesses eight water stressors across Africa using exposure and vulnerability data. It finds WASH-service risks affect the largest populations and calls for stronger transboundary cooperation and improved data systems.

This report shows that for women in beauty services, domestic work, food delivery, e-commerce, and ride-hailing, heat is not just a climate issue. It is a labour rights, gender, health, and urban infrastructure crisis.

Experiences of garment workers in this study show that extreme heat is not just uncomfortable but determines health, mental well-being, productivity, and livelihood. Yet workplace regulations and climate responses remain poorly equipped to address risks.

The recent disaster in Nepal may be a warning of what's to come for the rest of the world. While scientists are getting better at identifying where the danger lies, knowing exactly when the next mountainside will collapse is a much harder problem.

WHO’s 2026 situation analysis warns the strong El Niño will bring extreme climate conditions, escalating health threats particularly for the vulnerable, urging early action to anticipate, mitigate, and respond.

An interview with Sarah Jones, President of DWD, partnership and what EUMETSAT’s new generation satellites will bring and how Germany's national weather service applies EUMETSAT data and services in essential weather forecasts and climate monitoring.

Heavy rainfall can cause spikes in bacterial pollution in bathing waters due to overflows from combined sewer systems (CSOs). Researchers can now track the spread of bacteria from sewer system to coastal waters, enabling prediction of pollution risks.

Extreme heat is becoming an operating condition. Keeping power, water and essential services running requires coordinated planning, data-sharing, governance and investment. The choices made now will shape resilience and competitiveness for years to come.

Coastal flooding seems like an unpredictable event, a natural disaster that occurs randomly. But UCF researcher Ivan Haigh has found that recurrent coastal floods actually occur at highly predictable times.

This Technical Handbook guides North Macedonia’s Resilient Recovery Framework, consolidating EU-aligned evidence and tools, urging legal, institutional, and data reforms, and detailing stepwise, people-centered approaches for risk-informed recovery.

The interaction of land subsidence with urbanization, reclamation and climate variability in contributing to massive flooding must also be examined, along with possible governance failures in light of increasing flood risk in Philippines.

For scientists, central question is not whether earthquakes will return to Kashmir. Geological history makes that virtually inevitable. Question is whether the region’s infrastructure, institutions, and communities will be better prepared when they do.

This study examines the anticipatory action (AA) activations implemented before the 2025 Pakistan Floods and documents implementation experiences, operational learning, and lessons from these activations.

This study presents the first national-scale characterisation of land subsidence hazard and exposure of population groups and infrastructure systems across 20 United States coastal states, explicitly accounting for spatial dependence.

This paper presents a high-resolution modelling approach for coastal exposure assessment, based on a 43-year wave hindcast dataset, applied to a densely urbanised stretch of coast along the eastern Ligurian Riviera (northwestern Italy).

More extreme storms could increase the threat in mountainous areas where steep slopes already create hazards.

As record-breaking global temperatures and extreme weather events spark intense debate over global warming speed-up, a new study led by UC Santa Cruz reveals how warming is accelerating differently across distinct regions.

A hybrid neural network reproduces pushover analysis in about 70 milliseconds, opening the way to city-scale seismic risk mapping.

An EU project is building a multi-risk early warning system that forecasts who and what a hazard will affect, not just where it will strike.

Heatwaves over land worldwide are beginning earlier, ending later, and occurring over longer seasons, while the first heatwave of the season has recently shifted toward faster onset, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change.

This white paper analyzes the growing compound risks of heat and water stress using climate models, industry data, and case studies, urging forward-looking risk integration and investment in water efficiency amid rising global wet-bulb temperatures.

The World Risk Report 2026 asks: why does the same storm turn into a disaster in one country while its consequences remain limited elsewhere?

A new survey by the Annenberg Public Policy Center finds that the majority of Americans believe climate change is increasing the risk of respiratory diseases and heat- and insect-related illnesses.

This assessment examines climate hazards in Kamwenge District, highlighting increasing drought, heat and localized flood risks and their implications for refugee and host communities.

This report analyzes climate hazards and future projections in Terego District, Uganda. It highlights rising heat stress, unpredictable rainfall, seasonal drought, and localized flooding affecting rural host communities and refugee settlements.

This report provides a comprehensive spatial analysis of historical climate trends and future projections for Obongi District, Uganda. It evaluates key climate hazards—specifically seasonal droughts and flood susceptibility.

This summary presents downscaled climate projections for Madi Okollo District under the SSP2-4.5 moderate emissions scenario, evaluating shift patterns between the historical baseline (1970–2000) and mid-century (2041–2060).

This assessment examines climate hazards in Isingiro District, highlighting increasing heat, seasonal drought and localized flooding and their impacts on refugee and host communities.

The report assesses climate hazards in Uganda's Lamwo District, analyzing historical trends and future projections for seasonal drought and localized flooding.

This assessment examines climate hazards in Kyegegwa District, focusing on drought, flooding, rainfall variability and rising temperatures, and their impacts on refugee and host communities.

This report evaluates the climate hazard vulnerability of Koboko District, Uganda, a region hosting over 31,000 formal and self-settled refugees near the borders of South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

This report evaluates climate risks in Kiryandongo District, Uganda, where rising temperatures and erratic rainfall threaten over 165,000 refugees and local host communities.

This report evaluates climate hazards in Uganda's Kikuube District, where rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall fuel severe seasonal droughts and localized flooding.

This assessment maps drought, heat, and flood risks in Uganda's Yumbe District to help guide climate adaptation and disaster planning for local communities and Bidibidi Refugee Settlement residents.

This climate hazard assessment highlights how rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and recurring seasonal droughts and floods threaten livelihoods and food security for refugee and host communities in Uganda's Adjumani District.

The threat was already changing how El Chaltén prepared for the future, but the disaster in Nepal has brought these risks to the forefront.

In Svalbard, risks are not only shaped by global forces like climate change or geopolitical tensions, but also by the everyday realities of life in a remote, dynamic, and changing environment.

This summer in Europe we are witnessing extreme heat for a prolonged period of time. This is a direct product of climate change. In this insight, we assess the impact, both in terms of GDP and wellbeing.

Many drivers expect the worst that can happen is their car might be damaged. But driving through floodwater can lead to drowning due to the car floating and being carried downstream.

This study presents a novel five-step ensemble machine learning approach to improve predictive accuracy in assessing climate change impacts on inflow patterns and hydropower generation across seven dam basins in West Africa.