Exploring the impact mechanisms of tropical cyclone losses: a global analysis integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (1990–2019)

This study examines how hazard intensity, exposure and vulnerability shape tropical cyclone mortality and direct economic losses worldwide, using globally recorded disaster loss data from 1990 to 2019. Tropical cyclones (TCs) have caused substantial mortality and economic losses worldwide, yet existing studies have primarily focused on individual risk components, specific regions, or single loss types. It therefore remains unclear whether TC-related mortality and direct economic losses are shaped by the same or different combinations of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and how these mechanisms vary across regions and income groups.

 

The results show that TC impacts are highly concentrated in a few countries and unevenly distributed across income groups: low- and lower-middle-income countries, including Bangladesh, Myanmar, and the Philippines, accounted for over 80% of TC-related mortality, whereas high- and upper-middle-income countries, including the United States, Japan, and China, bore 77% of direct economic losses. During the study period, TC hazard intensity increased, while both population exposure and GDP exposure exhibited pronounced upward trends, while vulnerability declined overall but remained high in many low-income countries. Attribution analysis indicates that GDP exposure is the dominant driver of global economic losses, with a 192.82% increase per 100% rise, whereas population vulnerability is the primary determinant of TC-related mortality, with a 63.58% increase per 100% rise. The dominant drivers also differ across regions and income groups.