Brazil readiness assessment: Delivering anticipatory social protection

This study uses the ASPIRE tool to evaluate the readiness and effectiveness of social protection systems in Brazil, identifying gaps and opportunities to improve anticipatory measures and climate resilience.  The analysis combines a national-level assessment with in-depth programme analysis of three flagship social protection instruments: the Programa de Aquisição de Alimentos (Food Acquisition Programme — PAA), the Programa Nacional de Alimentação Escolar (National School Feeding Programme — PNAE) and Bolsa Família. Together, these programmes represent the backbone of Brazil’s non-contributory social protection system, spanning income support, food and nutrition security and climatesensitive rural livelihoods.

This assessment shows that Brazil is well positioned to advance anticipatory social protection because many of the core foundations are already in place. The ASPIRE analysis highlights a social protection system that is mature, rights-based and capable of operating at scale, with strong delivery platforms, national registries and demonstrated capacity to respond rapidly once crises occur. At the same time, the assessment makes clear that anticipatory action remains uneven and largely dependent on exceptional decisions rather than being embedded as a routine, risk-informed mode of operation.