Strengthening the EU’s future disaster resilience: A strategic foresight study identifying priority capabilities and emerging technologies towards 2040

This report presents the results of a strategic foresight study aimed at supporting European Union policy developments and strategic planning, particularly Research & Innovation funding in the destination A Disaster-Resilient Society for Europe. The study adopts a forward-looking and capability-based approach to strengthen the EU’s preparedness and response capacity in the context of an increasingly complex and interconnected risk landscape. Through this multi-stage process, involving more than 120 experts, the study identified, validated and prioritized operational capabilities and emerging technologies relevant for disaster and infrastructure resilience towards 2040.

The study concludes that the risk landscape to 2040 is defined by convergence, with natural hazards, security threats and structural vulnerabilities interacting and amplifying each other. It identifies twelve priority capabilities and twelve emerging technologies and highlights the need for a systemic, capability-centred approach. The report recommends embedding foresight as a continuous function in policymaking, establishing a common capability framework, strengthening preparedness-oriented capabilities, removing barriers to innovation uptake, exploiting civil-military synergies, ensuring trustworthy governance of emerging technologies, and operationalizing a whole-of-society approach through citizen empowerment and trust.