A new approach for crisis management analysis: Considering the anticipation/decision making pair as a continuum

This paper illustrates the obstacles to accurately predicting crisis situations by demonstrating the fragmentation of the pair anticipation/decision-making. This is done through two studies involving the Caribbean Irma-Jose-Maria hurricane sequence that occurred in 2017. Firstly, the sequence is examined through the lens of the French National Crisis Coordination Centre at the Interministerial level. Secondly, through that of a government operator, the French Geological Survey, at the territorial level.

The results of the study suggest that time is a critical structuring element for adaptive and shared anticipatory approaches. Therefore, the anticipation/decision-making pair can be seen as a continuum integrating all temporalities from prevention through to crisis management and reconstruction. The authors use their to suggest the application of this new paradigm in administrative cultures which are often working in competing and contrasting manners during crisis situations.