A dynamic multilevel behavioural framework for emergency preparedness

Using a pandemic as central illustrative example of an emergency, this paper merges the emergency management cycle with the socio-ecological model and offers a behavioural framework that captures the complex temporal and social dimensions of preparedness. The authors delineate how actions of individuals, communities, organizations, and governments - across phases of the emergency management cycle, from “cold” (preparation) to “hot” (crisis) phases - jointly shape preparedness, i.e. the capability to prevent, respond to, and recover from emergencies.

The framework highlights both horizontal interdependencies, where early actions enable or constrain later responses; and vertical interdependencies, reflecting feedback and influence among actors at different societal levels. By mapping these dynamic interconnections, the framework provides practical guidance for designing policies and protocols. The paper spells out five concrete steps:

• Make interdependencies explicit — map early how one actor's actions (e.g. workplace policy) shape another's options (e.g. a citizen's ability to isolate).
• Build behaviourally informed guidance — turn vague preparedness goals into concrete answers to "who does what, when, under what conditions."
• Target investment at leverage points — cold-phase spending on things like health literacy or digital access pays off in speed and reach later.
• Institutionalise behavioural expertise — set up standing collaborations between behavioural scientists, emergency experts, and authorities before a crisis, not during one.
• Monitor and adapt — track behavioural metrics (trust, adherence, perceived efficacy) alongside the usual epidemiological indicators.