Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise

In this article, the authors develop context-specific coastal exposure scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. The researchers integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate sea-level rise (SLR), land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks.

Across the authors' plausible set of downscaled scenarios of shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding until 2100 than does the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions largely influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating the necessity of appropriate policy design to manage coastal risks.