Coupling land use planning and multi-stakeholder dynamics to inform disaster risk management: Who pays for risk and who gains from intervention?

This study assesses how land use and acquisition strategies shape disaster losses, government expenditures, and household outcomes over time. The authors present a computational framework that simulates building inventory changes under different LUP restrictiveness levels and apply it to eastern North Carolina. The framework models government programs, household decisions, and economic outcomes under six strategies based on three levels of LUP restrictiveness, with and without a property acquisition program. Importantly, in all cases, the projected development is allowed to occur; however, policies instead guide where growth takes place to limit increasing risk. 

The results reveal two central dynamics. First, continued development without intervention leads to sharp increases in losses, with the economic burden falling mainly on households and the government. Second, land use restrictions and acquisition programs significantly reduce system-wide exposure by limiting flood losses, particularly from new construction. These interventions lower economic losses and financial burdens, easing public disaster spending and reducing household expenditures.