Anticipatory action for population movement by the IFRC: Report

This report outlines the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies’ (IFRC) development of technical guidance on anticipatory action for population movement, responding to the growing need to reduce predictable humanitarian impacts arising from complex, multi‑driver displacement. It presents why and how the IFRC established a two‑year Working Group (2024–2025) to clarify what aspects of migration can be anticipated, how evidence and triggers can be defined, and which early actions National Societies can feasibly take before conditions deteriorate. Drawing on extensive consultations, operational learning, and data analysis, the report highlights the distinct challenges of anticipating non‑climate‑related displacement and the importance of triangulating diverse information sources. Chapters on triggers, thresholds, and impact analysis provide essential disaster risk reduction insights, while the technical outputs—an sEAP proforma and validation criteria—offer practical tools for designing and reviewing Early Action Protocols across varied contexts. 

The report recommends strengthening readiness over prediction, adopting flexible and proportional evidence requirements, and embedding neutrality and universality safeguards in all anticipatory frameworks. It emphasises the need for mobility‑sensitive monitoring, iterative learning, and cross‑regional exchange to refine approaches as early activations generate new insights. The report further encourages National Societies to integrate mixed data sources, identify inflection points where humanitarian conditions may worsen, and apply early actions across origin, transit, and settlement stages to reduce risks for people on the move and host communities.