Towards a risk-informed approach to development: Financing Resilience Today for a Sustainable Tomorrow

16 October 2025, 10:00 am - 1:00 pm, Conference Room 2, UNHQ

Background and Rationale

Current Global Risk Scenario

The world is at a critical juncture on the path to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Progress is faltering, and multiple interlinked crises driven by disasters, climate change, environmental degradation, rapid urbanization, and systemic risks are compounding vulnerabilities. 

Disasters destroy lives and livelihoods, erode hard-won gains, and exacerbate inequalities, particularly in fragile and vulnerable contexts. In 2024 alone, disasters affected over 167 million people and disaster costs now exceed over $2.3 trillion annually, taking into account cascading and ecosystem costs.[1] Current projections indicate that the number of disasters could rise by 40% between 2015 and 2030, amplifying systemic risks and jeopardizing the achievement of all the SDGs.[2] Without urgent action, the risk of backsliding on progress achieved thus far is real and imminent.

The importance of a risk-informed approach to development has been emphasized in several intergovernmental outcomes, including the 2023 SDG Summit Political Declaration, the Midterm Review of the Sendai Framework, and the Pact for the Future. Most recently, the Compromiso de Sevilla underscored the importance of scaling up investment in disaster risk reduction and disaster risk financing to safeguard development gains from disasters. While policymaking has increasingly recognized this need, it has yet to translate into concrete actions and investments on the ground. Current investments in prevention meet less than 25% of actual needs across many countries, while less than 0.5% of Official Development Assistance (ODA) is directed toward disaster prevention and preparedness.[3] In contrast, 11% of ODA goes to emergency response and recovery, reinforcing reactive rather than proactive approaches.

This chronic underinvestment creates a vicious cycle: each disaster forces governments to divert scarce resources from long-term development to emergency relief, deepening fiscal stress and increasing debt burdens. Vulnerable countries are disproportionately affected, in particular the least developed countries, small island developing States, landlocked developing countries and African countries, as well as middle-income countries facing specific challenges. Their limited fiscal space and high debt vulnerability constrain their ability to invest in resilience, leaving them exposed to repeated shocks.

The Economic Case for Prevention

Investing in prevention is not only a moral imperative but an economic necessity. Evidence consistently shows that the benefits of DRR measures far outweigh their costs, with benefit-cost ratios ranging from 2:1 to 10:1 or more depending on the measure and context. Measures such as strengthening infrastructure to withstand hazards and investing in nature-based solutions yield high resilience dividends by reducing losses, safeguarding livelihoods, and accelerating recovery. 

Investments in early warning systems combined with anticipatory approaches are among the most cost-effective interventions, enabling timely action before shocks materialize, reducing humanitarian needs and supporting long-term development objectives. However, significant gaps persist in coverage, capacity, and financing, necessitating targeted technical and financial support to deploy and sustain early warning systems and ensure last-mile delivery to communities at risk. Bridging these gaps requires not only new resources but also the realization of existing international commitments on financing and support, ensuring that pledges translate into tangible resilience outcomes for vulnerable countries.

Failure to act now will lead to escalating costs. Disasters are already costing the global economy trillions annually and are projected to rise as risks intensify. Inadequate investment in resilience today will magnify future fiscal pressures, increase sovereign debt risk, and undermine global financial stability. Addressing these challenges requires urgently implementing global commitments on financing for development, and exploring innovative financing solutions, including blended finance, resilience bonds, debt swaps, and public-private partnerships, coupled with capacity-building and technology transfer.

Objectives of the Event

1. Strengthen global policies to scale up investment in resilience and ensure risk-informed investments for sustainable development.
2. Showcase successful initiatives at a global and local level, that have demonstrated impact in saving lives and reducing losses.
3. Highlight tailored support needs for vulnerable countries and explore innovative financing solutions, partnerships, and integrated approaches.

Proposed Agenda

Opening Segment: 

10:00 to 10:30 am

Chaired by Javad Momeni (Rapporteur of 2C)

1. Kamal Kishore (Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, and Head of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) - Opening Message

2. H.E. Ms. Merete Fjeld Brattested (Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Norway) - Statement on behalf of the co-chairs of the Group of Friends for Disaster Risk Reduction

3. H.E. Mr. Rui Vinhas (Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Portugal) – Reflections on Compromiso de Sevilla

Panel Discussions:

Panel 1: Investing in Resilience to Safeguard SDGs – The economic and development rationale for risk reduction, prevention and resilience investments

10:30 am - 11:00 am 

This session will highlight why prevention is smarter, cheaper, and essential for achieving the SDGs, explore how to de-risk investments, engage development banks and the private sector, and base actions on research and evidence.

Moderator: Kavita Desai (UN Representative, Friends World Committee for Consultation)

1. H.E. Mr. Gianluca Greco (Ambassador and Deputy Permanent Representative of Italy)– Perspectives on resource allocation for disaster risk reduction and resilience building in international development assistance

2. Paul Smoke (Acting Director at NYU Center on International Cooperation, Professor of Public Finance and Planning)– systems to enable global and national financing commitments to be implemented at a local level

3. Karen Vardanyan (Chief Financial Officer, UNCDF)– the catalytic role of private sector for investing in prevention and tools to draw in private capital for resilience

4. Pamela McElwee (Professor in the Department of Human Ecology, Rutgers University)– nature for resilience – addressing gaps and holistic approach for achieving SDGs

Moderated Interactive Discussion with panelists

11:00 to 11:45 am

Panel 2: Tailored Solutions for Vulnerable and Local Contexts – Financing strategies, concessional mechanisms and partnerships.

11:45 to 12:15pm

This session will showcase through real-world examples how countries facing unique vulnerabilities can access tailored support through concessional financing, partnerships and targeted initiatives.

Moderator: Frances Fuller, Head of Global Offices and Director of New York Office, Climate Analytics

1. H.E. Mr. Karoli Martin Ngoga (Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Rwanda) – EW4All and tailored solutions for DRR in Rwanda

2. Michelle Chivunga (Founder & CEO, Global Policy House)– bridging the digital divide to empower vulnerable countries

3. José Manuel Duarte da Costa (Portuguese National Authority for Emergency and Civil Protection) - "Safe Village, Safe People" (Aldeia Segura, Pessoas Seguras) programme for protection from rural fires

Moderated Interactive Discussion with panelists

11:15 to 12:55pm

Closing Segment:

12:55 to 1:00pm

1. Javad Momeni (Rapporteur of 2C) - Closing Remarks

Expected Outcomes

· Political commitment to scale up investments in prevention and resilience as a foundation for SDG progress.

· Pledges and policy commitments from Member States and partners to integrate DRR into national financing strategies and support to vulnerable countries.

· Greater visibility for initiatives delivering impact, encouraging replication and scale-up.

· Concrete recommendations feeding into Follow-up of FFD4 and other global financing deliberations.