Enduring impacts of El Niño on life expectancy in past and future climates

This study aims to investigate the extent to which El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects life expectancy in the long-term, through quantifying life expectancy and economic losses across high-income Pacific Rim countries.

The authors estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years (monetary equivalent loss of US$2.6 trillion) for the 1982-1983 El Niño and 0.4 years (US$4.7 trillion) for the 1997-1998 event. Climate projections under moderate emissions pathways suggest a cumulative decline of 2.8 years in life expectancy by 2100, amounting to US$35 trillion losses, with most of the monetary burden falling on the middle-aged population. These findings reveal that intensifying ENSO variability poses an underrecognized and enduring threat to human health and socio-economic stability.