Something coming: what scientists know about a potential 'super' El Nino

Forecasters say a potentially "super" El Niño is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific—but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts. The fast-warming tropical Pacific is pointing to a major event but a crucial weakening of trade winds—capable of turbocharging or throttling the phenomenon—has yet to materialize.

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is about an 80% chance of El Niño developing by July. Sea temperatures in key El Niño zones of the equatorial Pacific are rapidly rising, and an enormous pool of abnormally warm water is massing beneath the surface. Several leading weather services are predicting Pacific sea temperatures could surge 2.5C or more above average later this year—exceptionally high projections.

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A hallmark of the strongest El Ninos is the weakening of trade winds that blow east to west across the equator. But those winds are unpredictable and can strengthen unexpectedly, said L'Heureux. "When that happens, it pauses the growth of El Niño or even reverses it," she told AFP.

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Every El Niño is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns: drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted Indian monsoons, and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics. But climate change has shifted the baseline so dramatically that "history is a poorer guide for seasonal predictions," climatologist Felicity Gamble at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology told AFP.