How science helped build Brazil’s new National Civil Protection and Defence Plan

From fragmented responses to integrated risk governance

In recent decades, disasters have become more frequent, intense and complex, revealing the limits of reactive and fragmented emergency responses and highlighting the urgency of public policies grounded in science and interinstitutional cooperation. The 2023 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction estimates that more than 350 million people are affected every year by extreme events, whose impacts are intensified by climate change, unplanned urban growth and deep social inequalities. 

Brazil has faced an increasing number of compound and cascading disasters: floods in Rio Grande do Sul, droughts in the Amazon, and industrial accidents such as the mining dam failures in Minas Gerais (2015 and 2019) and the oil spill along the Northeastern coast. These events have highlighted the need to strengthen multi-level governance and enhance mechanisms for integrated risk governance and disaster risk reduction (DRR) through prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. 

While each new disaster multiplies emergency efforts, yet structural challenges persist. Effective disaster risk governance requires long-term planning grounded in science, cooperation, and shared responsibility. It was in this context that the National Civil Protection and Defence Plan (PN-PDC) was developed, a milestone for aligning national policy with global DRR and resilience frameworks, essential for building a more effective, equitable, and sustainable national system for disaster risk management.

A new paradigm for disaster risk reduction

The PN-PDC was established under the National Policy for Protection and Civil Defence (Nº 12.608/2012) and formalized by Decree No. 12.652 of October 7, 2025. It was launched by the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development (MIDR) on 11 November at COP30, on day after the publication of Ordinance Nº 3318, which approved and instituted the Nacional Plan. Coordinated by the MIDR through the National Secretariat for Protection and Civil Defence (SEDEC), the plan marks a paradigm shift: from a reactive posture toward a national policy guided by prevention, resilience, and equity.

The PN-PDC aligns with international commitments such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. It builds upon the national regulatory and institutional framework for risk governance and integrates evidence from both national and international experiences in DRR.

From data to decisions: science-based risk scenarios

One of the plan’s major innovations is the use of scientific modelling and data integration to inform decision-making. The PN-PDC presents risk scenarios by municipality and river basin, classifying disaster risk into four levels, from low to very high. This classification drew on three complementary instruments:

a) the Brazilian Digital Disaster Atlas, which consolidates historical disaster data;

b) the Municipal Capacity Indicator, a self-awareness tool for municipal managers developed by SEDEC; and

c) the Qualitative Risk Index, which innovates by proposing to use data on the economic losses generated by disasters, in addition to human impacts such as deaths, injuries, illnesses, homelessness and displacement.

Using regional climate models developed by the National Institute for Space Research, the PN-PDC projects climate-related risk trends through 2040. These projections provide an integrated view of territorial vulnerabilities and help guide strategic investment.

The plan also developed a simulation of civil defence resource allocation to assess different investment scenarios across municipal, state and national levels. This underscored the Sendai Framework’s key message that investing in prevention saves more lives and reduces public costs when compared to prioritizing disaster response. Based on this analysis, the PN-PDC guides the strategic allocation of resources and the development of state and municipal plans, promoting a shift toward a preventive, sustainable and territorially fair risk-management model.

A participatory and interinstitutional process

The PN-PDC’s development was unprecedented in its scale and inclusiveness. Over 4,200 participants from 1,187 municipalities across Brazil contributed through workshops, consultations and technical meetings. The process brought together representatives from all levels of government, universities, social organizations and local communities through a participatory and interinstitutional methodology. The initiative was implemented in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme and a consortium of research institutions bridging science and policy in practice. 

The PN-PDC thus consolidated a shared knowledge base integrating scientific evidence, institutional experience and community perspectives. The process fostered collective learning, empowering local and national actors to co-design solutions for risk reduction and resilience across Brazil’s diverse social and ecological landscapes.

Communication, inclusion, and the culture of prevention

Recognising that effective disaster risk governance depends on communication, the PN-PDC embedded a comprehensive communication and outreach strategy that is designed to ensure transparency, social engagement, inclusion, accessibility and continuity of communication practices across all phases of the plan’s development. 

Grounded in an integrated approach to risk communication and media interventions, the strategy was structured around four pillars, intrainstitutional, interinstitutional, media, and community, fostering dialogue among representatives of the diverse institutions and sectors that make up the National System for Protection and Civil Defence, including government bodies, state and municipal civil defence agencies, academia, organized civil society, community protection and civil defence groups, social movements, private institutions and international organizations.

Strategic framework and lessons learned

The final stage involved building consensus across sectors and levels of government through workshops and consultations with government, academia, and civil society. This process led to the definition of 6 principles, 9 guidelines, and 20 objectives and their respective targets, all centred on resilience, equity, sustainability and the integration of prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.

By bridging research and practice, Brazil’s PN-PDC advances the global DRR agenda and reaffirms that effective risk governance depends on science, participation and sustained political commitment. Beyond its national scope, the plan offers lessons relevant to other countries seeking to operationalize DRR principles:

• Integrating climate science and socio-economic data into planning tools enhances equity and resource efficiency.
• Participatory governance strengthens legitimacy and accountability across sectors and territories.
• Communication strategies that value diversity and dialogue foster long-term cultural change toward prevention.

The PN-PDC is a crucial milestone in Brazil's DRR efforts to tackle current and future challenges. It represents another step in a long journey of committing to funding and expanding DRR as a government policy, with investments in knowledge production, technologies and human resources. Broad public participation and the strengthening of agencies within the civil protection and defence system at the local level are also essential.