GAR 2015 Main Report

wind damage alone, excluding changes in the AAL associated with storm surge due to sea level rise. Given that Caribbean countries are collectively responsible for only a small proportion of global greenhouse gas emissions, the additional AAL of US$1.4 billion raises important questions regarding accountability for risk generation and regarding who should pay for these additional losses.

In some countries, the additionality of climate change is very significant. One example is Anguilla, where the AAL attributable to cyclone wind doubles with climate change, or Trinidad and Tobago, which faces a fivefold increase due to climate change. In contrast, Mexico would actually see a reduction in AAL, highlighting that the effects of climate change are not evenly distributed but will affect different countries in different ways.

3.6 Volcanic risk

New results from volcanic risk assessments show that while expected losses may be lower than those from other hazards at a global scale, in affected regions, they can be significant. Further, the impacts from volcanic ash fall can affect economic activity and the environment far beyond the locality of the hazard event.

There are 1,551 volcanoes on land that are known to have been active in the last 10,000 years (the Holocene), with a total of 9,444 eruptions. Since 1950, an average of 31 volcanoes have erupted each year. Most active volcanoes are located at the boundaries between tectonic plates, where the earth’s crust is either created or consumed ( GAR 13 paper

GVM, 2014a

GVM (Global Volcano Model). 2014a,Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Summary background paper. Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.
Click here to view this GAR paper.

Volcanoes are associated with multiple hazards, including pyroclastic flows and surges; volcanic

ash and tephra (large quantities of intensely fragmented rock); ballistics (rocks ejected by volcanic explosions); lahars and floods (fast-moving and destructive mixtures of volcanic debris and water); debris avalanches, landslides and tsunamis; volcanic gases and aerosols; lava flows; earthquakes; and lightning. Each hazard affects people, agriculture, the built environment and transport (e.g. aviation) in very different ways. For example, people living close to a volcano may be at direct risk from pyroclastic flows, avalanches or lahars. At the other extreme, volcanic ash clouds in the atmosphere and ash fall on the ground can have impacts hundreds to thousands of kilometres from their source.

At present, more than 800 million people in 86 countries live within 100 km of a volcano that could potentially erupt ( GAR 13 paper

GVM, 2014a

). The countries with the greatest number of people exposed are Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan. However, in some small countries, a higher proportion of the population is exposed, for example over 90 per cent in Guatemala and Iceland ( GAR 13 paper

GVM, 2014a

Five major eruptions in historical time dominate the mortality records directly associated with volcanoes. All five major events have occurred since the late 1700s, with mortality ranging from 15,000 to 60,000 per event.25 However, volcanic eruptions have also contributed indirectly to severe mortality, for example by inducing climate variability in other regions and thus causing famine (UNISDR, 2011a

UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

According to the Population Exposure Index,26 only 4 per cent of volcanoes in the world account for 61 per cent of the exposed population worldwide. The top ten “high exposure” volcanoes are concentrated in Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and Japan. Based on the number of active volcanoes in the country, the hazard level27 posed and the size of the exposed population living within 30 km of each volcano, around 95 per cent of the population exposed to

	79 wind damage alone, excluding changes in the AAL associated with storm surge due to sea level rise. Given that Caribbean countries are collectively responsible for only a small proportion of global greenhouse gas emissions, the additional AAL of US$1.4 billion raises important questions regarding accountability for risk generation and regarding who should pay for these additional losses. In some countries, the additionality of climate change is very significant. One example is Anguilla, where the AAL attributable to cyclone wind doubles with climate change, or Trinidad and Tobago, which faces a fivefold increase due to climate change. In contrast, Mexico would actually see a reduction in AAL, highlighting that the effects of climate change are not evenly distributed but will affect different countries in different ways. 3.6 Volcanic risk New results from volcanic risk assessments show that while expected losses may be lower than those from other hazards at a global scale, in affected regions, they can be significant. Further, the impacts from volcanic ash fall can affect economic activity and the environment far beyond the locality of the hazard event. There are 1,551 volcanoes on land that are known to have been active in the last 10,000 years (the Holocene), with a total of 9,444 eruptions. Since 1950, an average of 31 volcanoes have erupted each year. Most active volcanoes are located at the boundaries between tectonic plates, where the earth’s crust is either created or consumed (GVM, 2014a x GVM (Global Volcano Model). 2014a,Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Summary background paper. Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). Volcanoes are associated with multiple hazards, including pyroclastic flows and surges; volcanic ash and tephra (large quantities of intensely fragmented rock); ballistics (rocks ejected by volcanic explosions); lahars and floods (fast-moving and destructive mixtures of volcanic debris and water); debris avalanches, landslides and tsunamis; volcanic gases and aerosols; lava flows; earthquakes; and lightning. Each hazard affects people, agriculture, the built environment and transport (e.g. aviation) in very different ways. For example, people living close to a volcano may be at direct risk from pyroclastic flows, avalanches or lahars. At the other extreme, volcanic ash clouds in the atmosphere and ash fall on the ground can have impacts hundreds to thousands of kilometres from their source. At present, more than 800 million people in 86 countries live within 100 km of a volcano that could potentially erupt (GVM, 2014a x GVM (Global Volcano Model). 2014a,Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Summary background paper. Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). The countries with the greatest number of people exposed are Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan. However, in some small countries, a higher proportion of the population is exposed, for example over 90 per cent in Guatemala and Iceland (GVM, 2014a x GVM (Global Volcano Model). 2014a,Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Summary background paper. Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). Five major eruptions in historical time dominate the mortality records directly associated with volcanoes. All five major events have occurred since the late 1700s, with mortality ranging from 15,000 to 60,000 per event.25 However, volcanic eruptions have also contributed indirectly to severe mortality, for example by inducing climate variability in other regions and thus causing famine (UNISDR, 2011a x UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . ). According to the Population Exposure Index,26 only 4 per cent of volcanoes in the world account for 61 per cent of the exposed population worldwide. The top ten “high exposure” volcanoes are concentrated in Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and Japan. Based on the number of active volcanoes in the country, the hazard level27 posed and the size of the exposed population living within 30 km of each volcano, around 95 per cent of the population exposed to	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 69 Page 70 Page 71 Page 72 Page 73 Page 74 Page 75 Page 76 Page 77 Page 78 Page 79 Page 80 ->Page 81 Page 82 Page 83 Page 84 Page 85 Page 86 Page 87 Page 88 Page 89 Page 90 Page 91 Page 92 Page 93 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310