Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015
Making development sustainable: The future of disaster risk management |
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Part I - Chapter 4
4.1 Increasing extensive risk
Extensive disaster risk is magnified by drivers such as badly planned and managed urban development, environmental degradation, poverty and inequality, vulnerable rural livelihoods and weak governance. As a result, it continues to increase.
Extensive risk refers to the risk layer of high-frequency, low-severity losses. In general, this layer is not captured by global risk modelling, nor are the losses reported internationally. One key feature of the GAR (UNISDR, 2009a
UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . Extensive risk manifests as large numbers of recurrent, small-scale, low-severity disasters which are mainly associated with flash floods, landslides, urban flooding, storms, fires and other localized events. In addition, damage from electrical storms and lightning is increasingly contributing to loss from extensive risk due to wildfires.1
Extensive disaster risk is magnified by drivers such as badly planned and managed urban development, environmental degradation, poverty and inequality, vulnerable rural livelihoods and weak governance. This risk layer is characteristic of informal urban settlements and low-income rural areas (UNISDR, 2009a
UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . Unlike intensive risk, extensive risk is more closely associated with inequality and poverty than with earthquake fault lines and cyclone tracks. In many cases, the hazard, exposure and vulnerability are simultaneously configured through the underlying risk drivers. This also makes extensive risk an important poverty attribute.
In cities, for example, poverty forces low-income households to occupy areas of low land value that may be exposed to floods, landslides and other hazards (Wamsler, 2014
Wamsler, Christine. 2014,Urban focus in climate change adaptation and risk reduction, Klimat Fokus, No. 12 (2014). Lund University.. . Mitlin, Diana and David Satterthwaite. 2013,Urban Poverty in the Global South, Scale and Nature. USA and Canada: Routledge Publishing.. . UNISDR. 2013a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: From Shared Risk to Shared Value: the Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . Given that extensive and intensive risk simply refer to different risk layers, any quantitative threshold between them is arbitrary. The GAR has used a statistically determined loss threshold (Box 4.1) within which a minimum number of disasters accumulate the maximum possible mortality and economic damage (UNISDR, 2011a
UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . At the time when the HFA was adopted, the mortality, physical damage and economic loss from extensive risk had not been accounted for in national or international reports, except in a number of Latin American countries.2 As a result,
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