Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015
Making development sustainable: The future of disaster risk management

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Part I - Chapter 3
Table 3.2 Agriculture, land degradation and drought in sub-Saharan Africa
(Source: UNISDR with data from FAO, 2014

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2014,The State of Food and Agriculture: Innovation in family farming, Rome.. .
and GAR 13 paperErian et al., 2014

GAR13 Reference Erian, Wadid, Bassem Katlan, Naji Assad and Sanaa Ibrahim. 2014,Effects of Drought and Land Degradation on Crop Losses in Africa and the Arab Region with Special Case Study on: drought and conflict in Syria, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR..
Click here to view this GAR paper.
Note: Where data is not included in the table, it is because no data was readily available.
of GDP, and the probable maximum loss (PML) from a 1-in-25-year drought is equal to 10 per cent of GDP. In addition, a 1-in-25-year drought would exacerbate income poverty by 17 per cent, which would mean an additional 2.1 million people falling below the poverty line (World Bank et al., no date).
The picture is equally critical in West Africa. Mali, for example, faces a 10 per cent probability of suffering production losses amounting to US$48
million or larger in 50 years for millet alone (Figure 3.34). In Senegal, millet production losses for the same return period are US$15 million or more.
According to the IPCC, “climate change is very likely to have an overall negative effect on yields of major cereal crops across Africa, with strong regional variability in the degree of yield reduction” (IPCC, 2014

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014,Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.. .
). However, this regional variability would be considerable and may even involve
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