Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015
Making development sustainable: The future of disaster risk management

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Part I - Chapter 5
also be drivers of new disaster risk (IOM, no date). Investment and economic development in hazard-prone regions attract people to those areas. As a result, the population in hazard-exposed regions is growing proportionally faster than elsewhere (UN-HABITAT, 2010

UN-HABITAT (United Nations Human Settlements Programme). 2010,State of the World’s Cities Report 2010-2011: Bridging the Urban Divide, Overview and Key Findings. United Nations.. .
; UNISDR, 2011a

UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .
; Lall and Deichmann, 2011

Lall, Somik and Uwe Deichmann. 2011,Density and Disasters: Economics of Urban Hazard Risk, The World Bank Research Observer Advance Access. Published July 7, 2011.. .
Human mobility has always been a strategy to manage environmental risk and natural resources (Oteros-Rozas, 2012

Oteros-Rozas, E., J.A. Gonzales, B. Martin-Lopez, C.A. Lopez, and C. Montes. 2012,Ecosystem services and social-ecological resilience in transhumance cultural landscapes: learning from the past, looking for a future, In Resilience and the cultural landscape: Understanding and managing change in human-shaped environments, T. Plieninger and C. Bieling, eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.. .
; Warner et al., 2012

Warner, Koko, Tamar Afifi, Kevin Henry, Tonya Rawe, Christopher Smith and Alex de Shebinin. 2012,Where the rain falls: climate change, livelihood security, and migration, Paris and Bonn: CARE France and UNU.. .
; Castillo, 2011

Castillo, Rosa Cordillera A. 2011,When Fishing is No Longer Viable: Environmental Change, Unfair Market Relations, and Livelihood in a Small Fishing Community in the Philippines, Paper presented at the ESF-UniBi-ZiF research conference on ‘Environmental Change and Migration: From Vulnerabilities to Capabilities’, Bad Salzuflen, Germany, December 5-9, 2010. COMCAD Arbeitspapiere - Working Papers No. 105, 2011 Series on Environment. .
). But increasingly, everyday social and political risks add to the pressures on marginal groups in society to migrate (Schensul and Dodman, 2013

Schensul, D. and D. Dodman. 2013,Populating Adaptation: Incorporating population dynamics in climate change adaptation policy and practice, In The demography of adaptation to climate change, G. Martine and D. Schensul, eds. New York, London and Mexico City: United Nations Population Fund, International Institute for Environment and Development and El Colegio de Mexico.. .
). Local displacement can also drive up hazard exposure and vulnerability by increasing the pressure on already fragile resource bases (de Sherbinin et al., 2007

de Sherbinin, Alex, Andrew Schiller and Alex Pulsipher. 2007,The vulnerability of global cities to climate hazards, Environment and Urbanization, Vol. 19, No. 1: 39-64.. .
; UNISDR, 2009a

UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .
; Peduzzi, 2010), and urban displacement is a particularly important driver of disaster risk (IPCC, 2014

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014,Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.. .
). Where informal settlements are demolished to make way for the development of shopping malls, luxury apartments and hotels (Menon-Sen and Bhan, 2008

Menon-Sen, K. and K. Bhan. 2008,Swept off the Map: Surviving Eviction and Resettlement in New Delhi, New Delhi: Yoda Press.. .
), people are often displaced to other hazard-prone locations.
Thus displacement and migration put a spotlight on the critical role that vulnerability will continue to play in driving disaster risk upwards over the years to come.
No country for old men
Aside from migration and displacement, demographic change will continue to shape risk patterns and trends, including future complex and systemic risks. Ageing populations in OECD countries, but also in some emerging economies, mean that an increasing share of people affected will be over 60, which will increase fatalities, longer-term impacts on well-being and the livelihoods of a large part of the population.
Evidence from recent events indicate that this trend is already showing its effects: 71 per cent of lives lost during Hurricane Katrina and around 50 per cent of fatalities from Hurricane Sandy were people aged 60 and over (Parry, 2013

Parry, W. 2013,Why disasters like Sandy hit the elderly hard, 8 March 2013. Available from http:// .
). During heat waves such as the one experienced in Europe during 2003, most lives lost are those of the elderly (GAR 13 paperOECD, 2014a

GAR13 Reference OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2014a,Interconnected, Interdependent Risks, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR..
Click here to view this GAR paper.
5.3 The international resilience
The increasing gap between demand for response to disasters and available global funding highlights the need for effective disaster risk reduction. Resource gaps in a number of countries are significant even for relatively frequent events.
There is also a humanitarian resource gap, which can be expressed as the difference between estimated losses and the funding provided by the global humanitarian community. While it has been internationally recognized that response and relief are not sustainable as the main pillar of disaster risk management, recent figures are a stark reminder that this gap continues to grow (Figure 5.9). While humanitarian funding requests have more than quadrupled over the last 20 years, the gap between the funding requested and provided has grown by more than 800 per cent. In other words, global funding requirements are increasing, while the national and international capacity to meet them is not growing at the same rate. Rather than justifying the need for additional humanitarian assistance, this reinforces the case for investing in disaster risk reduction. Ultimately, the growing humanitarian resource gap is unsustainable, and an approach based principally on responding to disaster is increasingly bankrupt.
Globally, the resource gaps vary significantly for different risk layers (Figure 5.10). For example, covering the resource gaps caused by losses with
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