GAR 2015 Main Report

Table 3.4 Estimated maize production losses in the Rift Valley, Kenya with and without climate change

(Source:

Jayanthi, 2014

Jayanthi, Harikishan. 2014,Assessing the agricultural drought risks for principal rainfed crops due to changing climate scenarios using satellite estimated rainfall in Africa, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction..
Click here to view this GAR paper.

Figure 3.37 Probable losses in maize production in the Rift Valley, Kenya with and without climate change

(Source:

Jayanthi, 2014

from 866,440 tons (baseline) to 351,225 tons. The average annual loss (AAL) is thus projected to be 48,463 tons (1.78 per cent of the total maize production in the Rift Valley Province in 2012), a full 38 per cent lower than the baseline AAL of 78,190 tons (2.86 per cent of the total maize production in Rift Valley Province in 2012; see Table 3.4).

While losses due to frequent droughts (return periods shorter than 5 years) would be similar

to the observed losses for the 1981-2010 period, losses from more severe and infrequent droughts would be significantly lower (Figure 3.37). For example, a crop loss of 390,000 tons with a current probability of 1 in 20 years would have an occurrence probability of 1 in 100 years under the near-term climate change scenario.

	87 Table 3.4 Estimated maize production losses in the Rift Valley, Kenya with and without climate change (Source: Jayanthi, 2014 x Jayanthi, Harikishan. 2014,Assessing the agricultural drought risks for principal rainfed crops due to changing climate scenarios using satellite estimated rainfall in Africa, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.. Click here to view this GAR paper. .) Figure 3.37 Probable losses in maize production in the Rift Valley, Kenya with and without climate change (Source: Jayanthi, 2014 x Jayanthi, Harikishan. 2014,Assessing the agricultural drought risks for principal rainfed crops due to changing climate scenarios using satellite estimated rainfall in Africa, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.. Click here to view this GAR paper. .) from 866,440 tons (baseline) to 351,225 tons. The average annual loss (AAL) is thus projected to be 48,463 tons (1.78 per cent of the total maize production in the Rift Valley Province in 2012), a full 38 per cent lower than the baseline AAL of 78,190 tons (2.86 per cent of the total maize production in Rift Valley Province in 2012; see Table 3.4). While losses due to frequent droughts (return periods shorter than 5 years) would be similar to the observed losses for the 1981-2010 period, losses from more severe and infrequent droughts would be significantly lower (Figure 3.37). For example, a crop loss of 390,000 tons with a current probability of 1 in 20 years would have an occurrence probability of 1 in 100 years under the near-term climate change scenario.	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 77 Page 78 Page 79 Page 80 Page 81 Page 82 Page 83 Page 84 Page 85 Page 86 Page 87 Page 88 ->Page 89 Page 90 Page 91 Page 92 Page 93 Page 94 Page 95 Page 96 Page 97 Page 98 Page 99 Page 100 Page 101 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310