Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015
Making development sustainable: The future of disaster risk management

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Figure 3.14 shows the 15 countries (excluding SIDS) where the highest proportion of capital stock could be lost with a probability of 10 per cent over a fifty-year period (500-year PML). As can be seen, these potential losses are important, representing between 2 and 12 per cent of the total capital stock for these countries.
These losses are equivalent to 800 per cent of annual capital investment in Trinidad and Tobago, 100 per cent of annual capital investment in Peru and 90 per cent in Japan. To avoid systemic risk, it is important to factor contingent liabilities into international loans and other financial instruments.
Tropical cyclones
Global average annual loss from recurrent cyclone winds and storm surge is estimated at US$80 billion, which is equivalent to 1.4 times the total public health expenditure in Africa or 85 per cent of public education expenditure in Australia and New Zealand combined.
The physical intensity of tropical cyclones is determined by their wind speeds, which affect both coastal and inland areas. Historically, the highest concentration of cyclonic wind has been in the Western Pacific (Figure 3.15). The weakest storms take place near the equator, in their first stages of development; over land, as they run out of energy; and in the mid-latitudes due to the cooler temperature of the water.17 Given the concentration of economic assets and population along the coasts in many countries, risk is heavily influenced by exposure. However, in low and middle-income countries the vulnerability of building stock is an important risk factor which increases in weight in the case of low-intensity cyclones (UNISDR, 2011a

UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .
Strong winds and low air pressure in the eye of the storm may also cause storm surges up to 10 metres high. In contrast to wind, storm surge can only contribute to significant damage along the coast, depending on the slope of the seabed in the area where the cyclone makes landfall
(Source: NASA.18)
Figure 3.15 Worldwide historical tropical cyclone tracks
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