GAR 2015 Main Report

232

Part III - Chapter 12

Energy consumption increases with rising GDP per capita; however, as highlighted in Chapter 13, the relationship is non-linear. The total global primary energy supply more than doubled between 1971 and 2011, while the global population grew by 86 per cent over the same time frame (OECD and IEA, 2013

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013,World Energy Outlook 2013, Executive Summary. Paris.. .

). This has contributed to significant increases in CO2 emissions (IEA, 2013

IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013,CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion, Highlights. IEA Statistics. Paris.. .

; OECD and IEA, 2013

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013,World Energy Outlook 2013, Executive Summary. Paris.. .

), particularly in rapidly growing and urbanizing economies such as India and China. In 1980, for example, electricity consumption in India was less than a tenth of the world average. By the year 2010 it had increased by 358 per cent, compared to a world average of 88 per cent.2 Largely based on coal, the country’s electricity generation accounts for almost half (48 per cent) of its total CO2 emissions (von Hauff and Kundu, 2002

von Hauff, Michael and Amitabh Kundu. 2002,Energy Strategy for Sustainable Development Use of Renewable Resources and its Implications in India, India. .

Overconsumption now exceeds the capacity of a number of different planetary systems.In this context, Rockstrm et al. (2009) identified nine different planetary boundaries which can be grouped as follows: boundaries defining a safe global level of depleting non-renewable fossil resources, such as energy (coal, oil, gas), and fossil groundwater; boundaries defining a safe global level of use of the living biosphere, including the exploitation of ecosystems, protection of biodiversity and consuming renewable resources, such as land use; and boundaries defining a safe global level of the planetary system’s capacity to absorb and dissipate human waste flows, including carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and toxic chemicals such as pesticides. At least three of these boundaries

(climate change, biodiversity loss and the nitrogen cycle) have already been breached (ibid.).3

Climate change is probably the best known of these planetary boundaries, and its relationship with increasing disaster risks has already been clearly established (IPCC, 2012

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012,Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Full Report. (Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Al-len, M. Tignor and P.M. Midgley, eds.). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Inter-governmental Panel on. .

and 2014). Disaster risk is magnified by climate change (UNISDR, 2009a

UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

, 2011a; IPCC, 2012

;

SEI, 2014

SEI (Stockholm Environment Institute). 2014,Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR..
Click here to view this GAR paper.

). Climate change is already altering the frequency and intensity of many weather-related hazards (IPCC, 2014

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014,Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.. .

) as well as steadily increasing the vulnerability and eroding the resilience of exposed populations that depend on arable land, access to water, and stable mean temperatures and rainfall (UNDP et al., 2013

UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), UN-ESCAP (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific), UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), UNISDR (United Nations 2013,TST Issues Brief: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction, Prepared by UNDP, UNEP, UN-ESCAP, UNFCCC, UNISDR and WMO with contributions from FAO, IFAD, ITU, OCHA, PBSO, UNCCD, UNDESA, UN-ESCWA, UNFF, UN-FPA, UN-HABITAT, UNIDO, UNOOSA, UN-Women, WFP, WHO, and the World Bank.. .

At the same time, breaking through other boundaries also has implications for disaster risk. Economic growth is often associated with ecosystem destruction and degradation, for example with the conversion of mangrove forests into shrimp farms, primary forests into plantations to produce palm oil or soya, or wetlands and floodplains into urban developments, or with the processes of land degradation and aquifer exhaustion associated with intensive agriculture.

This form of waste also comes at a high cost: worldwide, the equivalent of US$750 billion, or the GDP of Switzerland, is wasted every year (FAO, 2012

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2012,World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050, The 2012 Revision. ESA Working Paper No. 12-03, June 2012. Agricultural Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.. .

). This type of waste contributes directly to food insecurity (EIU, 2014

The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2014,Global food security index 2014 special report: Food loss and its intersection with food security, Available from http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/.. .

) and consumes large amounts of scarce ground, surface water (equivalent to the annual discharge of the Volga River or three times the volume of Lake Geneva) and productive land (equal to 28 per cent of global agricultural land area in 2007). These two critical resources shape the vulnerability of those who depend on them (FAO, 2012

; Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2011

Mekonnen, M.M. and A.Y. Hoekstra. 2011,National Water Footprint Accounts: The green, blue and gray water footprint of production and consumption, Value of Water Research Report Series No. 50. Volume 1: Main Report. Delft, Netherlands: UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education.. .

).

Food waste contributes to tighter global food availability and more volatile food prices, which in turn threaten food security and resilience in substantial parts of the population of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia in particular (EIU, 2013

EIU (The Economist Intelligence Unit). 2013,Global food security index 2013: An annual measure of the state of global food security, Available from http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/.. .

; UNISDR, 2013a

UNISDR. 2013a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: From Shared Risk to Shared Value: the Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

	232 Part III - Chapter 12 Energy consumption increases with rising GDP per capita; however, as highlighted in Chapter 13, the relationship is non-linear. The total global primary energy supply more than doubled between 1971 and 2011, while the global population grew by 86 per cent over the same time frame (OECD and IEA, 2013 x OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013,World Energy Outlook 2013, Executive Summary. Paris.. . ). This has contributed to significant increases in CO2 emissions (IEA, 2013 x IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013,CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion, Highlights. IEA Statistics. Paris.. . ; OECD and IEA, 2013 x OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013,World Energy Outlook 2013, Executive Summary. Paris.. . ), particularly in rapidly growing and urbanizing economies such as India and China. In 1980, for example, electricity consumption in India was less than a tenth of the world average. By the year 2010 it had increased by 358 per cent, compared to a world average of 88 per cent.2 Largely based on coal, the country’s electricity generation accounts for almost half (48 per cent) of its total CO2 emissions (von Hauff and Kundu, 2002 x von Hauff, Michael and Amitabh Kundu. 2002,Energy Strategy for Sustainable Development Use of Renewable Resources and its Implications in India, India. . ). Overconsumption now exceeds the capacity of a number of different planetary systems.In this context, Rockstrm et al. (2009) identified nine different planetary boundaries which can be grouped as follows: boundaries defining a safe global level of depleting non-renewable fossil resources, such as energy (coal, oil, gas), and fossil groundwater; boundaries defining a safe global level of use of the living biosphere, including the exploitation of ecosystems, protection of biodiversity and consuming renewable resources, such as land use; and boundaries defining a safe global level of the planetary system’s capacity to absorb and dissipate human waste flows, including carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and toxic chemicals such as pesticides. At least three of these boundaries (climate change, biodiversity loss and the nitrogen cycle) have already been breached (ibid.).3 Climate change is probably the best known of these planetary boundaries, and its relationship with increasing disaster risks has already been clearly established (IPCC, 2012 x IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012,Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Full Report. (Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Al-len, M. Tignor and P.M. Midgley, eds.). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Inter-governmental Panel on. . and 2014). Disaster risk is magnified by climate change (UNISDR, 2009a x UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . , 2011a; IPCC, 2012 x IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012,Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Full Report. (Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Al-len, M. Tignor and P.M. Midgley, eds.). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Inter-governmental Panel on. . ; SEI, 2014 x SEI (Stockholm Environment Institute). 2014,Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). Climate change is already altering the frequency and intensity of many weather-related hazards (IPCC, 2014 x IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014,Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.. . ) as well as steadily increasing the vulnerability and eroding the resilience of exposed populations that depend on arable land, access to water, and stable mean temperatures and rainfall (UNDP et al., 2013 x UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), UN-ESCAP (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific), UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), UNISDR (United Nations 2013,TST Issues Brief: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction, Prepared by UNDP, UNEP, UN-ESCAP, UNFCCC, UNISDR and WMO with contributions from FAO, IFAD, ITU, OCHA, PBSO, UNCCD, UNDESA, UN-ESCWA, UNFF, UN-FPA, UN-HABITAT, UNIDO, UNOOSA, UN-Women, WFP, WHO, and the World Bank.. . ). At the same time, breaking through other boundaries also has implications for disaster risk. Economic growth is often associated with ecosystem destruction and degradation, for example with the conversion of mangrove forests into shrimp farms, primary forests into plantations to produce palm oil or soya, or wetlands and floodplains into urban developments, or with the processes of land degradation and aquifer exhaustion associated with intensive agriculture. This form of waste also comes at a high cost: worldwide, the equivalent of US$750 billion, or the GDP of Switzerland, is wasted every year (FAO, 2012 x FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2012,World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050, The 2012 Revision. ESA Working Paper No. 12-03, June 2012. Agricultural Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.. . ). This type of waste contributes directly to food insecurity (EIU, 2014 x The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2014,Global food security index 2014 special report: Food loss and its intersection with food security, Available from http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/.. . ) and consumes large amounts of scarce ground, surface water (equivalent to the annual discharge of the Volga River or three times the volume of Lake Geneva) and productive land (equal to 28 per cent of global agricultural land area in 2007). These two critical resources shape the vulnerability of those who depend on them (FAO, 2012 x FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2012,World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050, The 2012 Revision. ESA Working Paper No. 12-03, June 2012. Agricultural Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.. . ; Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2011 x Mekonnen, M.M. and A.Y. Hoekstra. 2011,National Water Footprint Accounts: The green, blue and gray water footprint of production and consumption, Value of Water Research Report Series No. 50. Volume 1: Main Report. Delft, Netherlands: UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education.. . ). Food waste contributes to tighter global food availability and more volatile food prices, which in turn threaten food security and resilience in substantial parts of the population of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia in particular (EIU, 2013 x EIU (The Economist Intelligence Unit). 2013,Global food security index 2013: An annual measure of the state of global food security, Available from http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/.. . ; UNISDR, 2013a x UNISDR. 2013a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: From Shared Risk to Shared Value: the Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . ).	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