GAR 2015 Main Report

Note: BRIICS = Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa. RoW = Rest of the world.

242

Part III - Chapter 12

Energy generation, and therefore consumption, also contribute to the depletion of natural resources such as water. Global water demand will increase dramatically even if agricultural production practices become more water-efficient (OECD, 2012

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2012,OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The consequences of Inaction, Paris: OECD Publishing.. .

). This increase will be driven mainly by growing demand for electricity generation and manufacturing in emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India (Figure 12.11).

By 2050, it is estimated that 40 per cent of the global population will be living in river basins that experience severe water stress, particularly in Africa and Asia (Figure 12.12). Groundwater depletion is projected to become a severe challenge for agriculture and urban water supplies, and though water supply should improve overall, it appears likely that more than 240 million people will not have access to drinking water by 2050 (OECD, 2012

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2012,OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The consequences of Inaction, Paris: OECD Publishing.. .

). This does not bode well for disaster risk reduction.

Current projections show that the speed and scale at which ecosystem decline could proceed,

not least due to sea level rise, may render existing efforts to manage disaster risk insufficient and ineffective. For example, the global reduction of wetland areas—an estimated 50 per cent since the beginning of the twentieth century—will lead to a severe reduction in global and especially local capacity to absorb water during floods and to reduce peak flows (TEEB, 2013

TEEB (The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity). 2013,The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity for Water and Wetlands. .

). For coastal wetlands, i.e. wetlands in the world’s major river deltas, a 52 per cent decline was recorded between the 1980s and early 2000s (Coleman et al., 2008

Coleman, James, Oscar Huh and DeWitt Braud, Jr. 2008,Wetland Loss in World Deltas, Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University. Available from http://www.geol.lsu.edu/WDD/ PUBLICATIONS/CH&B04/wetland_loss.htm Accessed 08 December 2014.. .

). Global estimates of future wetland loss are not currently available, but local and regional projections draw a bleak picture. For example, the area south of Freeport in Texas is projected to lose significant areas of wetland cover due to sea level rise by 2050 (Figure 12.13).

The cost of lost wetlands due to damage from lack of storm protection is potentially significant. In the United States, the cost of losing 1

Figure 12.11 Global water demand by 2050

(Source: OECD, 2012

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2012,OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The consequences of Inaction, Paris: OECD Publishing.. .

	Note: BRIICS = Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa. RoW = Rest of the world. 242 Part III - Chapter 12 Energy generation, and therefore consumption, also contribute to the depletion of natural resources such as water. Global water demand will increase dramatically even if agricultural production practices become more water-efficient (OECD, 2012 x OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2012,OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The consequences of Inaction, Paris: OECD Publishing.. . ). This increase will be driven mainly by growing demand for electricity generation and manufacturing in emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India (Figure 12.11). By 2050, it is estimated that 40 per cent of the global population will be living in river basins that experience severe water stress, particularly in Africa and Asia (Figure 12.12). Groundwater depletion is projected to become a severe challenge for agriculture and urban water supplies, and though water supply should improve overall, it appears likely that more than 240 million people will not have access to drinking water by 2050 (OECD, 2012 x OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2012,OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The consequences of Inaction, Paris: OECD Publishing.. . ). This does not bode well for disaster risk reduction. Current projections show that the speed and scale at which ecosystem decline could proceed, not least due to sea level rise, may render existing efforts to manage disaster risk insufficient and ineffective. For example, the global reduction of wetland areas—an estimated 50 per cent since the beginning of the twentieth century—will lead to a severe reduction in global and especially local capacity to absorb water during floods and to reduce peak flows (TEEB, 2013 x TEEB (The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity). 2013,The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity for Water and Wetlands. . ). For coastal wetlands, i.e. wetlands in the world’s major river deltas, a 52 per cent decline was recorded between the 1980s and early 2000s (Coleman et al., 2008 x Coleman, James, Oscar Huh and DeWitt Braud, Jr. 2008,Wetland Loss in World Deltas, Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University. Available from http://www.geol.lsu.edu/WDD/ PUBLICATIONS/CH&B04/wetland_loss.htm Accessed 08 December 2014.. . ). Global estimates of future wetland loss are not currently available, but local and regional projections draw a bleak picture. For example, the area south of Freeport in Texas is projected to lose significant areas of wetland cover due to sea level rise by 2050 (Figure 12.13). The cost of lost wetlands due to damage from lack of storm protection is potentially significant. In the United States, the cost of losing 1 Figure 12.11 Global water demand by 2050 (Source: OECD, 2012 x OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2012,OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The consequences of Inaction, Paris: OECD Publishing.. . .)	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 232 Page 233 Page 234 Page 235 Page 236 Page 237 Page 238 Page 239 Page 240 Page 241 Page 242 Page 243 ->Page 244 Page 245 Page 246 Page 247 Page 248 Page 249 Page 250 Page 251 Page 252 Page 253 Page 254 Page 255 Page 256 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310