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projected growth will not take place in the megacities of Asia, but in “middleweight” cities such as Foshan in China and Surat in India (Dobbs et al., 2012

Dobbs, Richard, Jaana Reemes, James Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, Sven Smit and Fabian Schaer. 2012,Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, McKinsey Global Institute. June 2012.. .

). These cities are projected to contribute two-thirds of global growth by 2025 (ibid.) and to host more than half of the world’s middle or “consuming” class (ibid.).12

The combination of speculative urban development for a wealthy minority with informal urbanization for a low-income majority in cities with weak capacities for urban planning and management is likely to continue to drive urban disaster risk. In the coming decades, most urban growth is likely to occur in regions like South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 11.8); without radical change, it will epitomize the growth in segregated disaster risk. Many countries in these regions have relatively weak urban governance. Governance and system failures to support regulatory functions have undermined the quality of building controls and created significant vulnerabilities. These include the insufficient quality

of underlying laws and regulations;13 ineffective administration; insufficient qualifications on the part of local building code officials, local designers and contractors; an inadequate focus on risk management; opaque, bureaucratic procedures; and corruption (GFDRR and UN-Habitat, 2014).

For example, India is projected to see its number of urban dwellers increase by 404 million over the next 35 years, which means that around 50 per cent of the country’s population will live in cities by 2050 (UNDESA, 2014b

UNDESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2014b,World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Highlights. United Nations, New York.. .

). In sub-Saharan Africa, similar growth rates mean that 55 per cent of the region’s population will live in urban areas by 2050 (ibid.). This represents what has been described as a tsunami of urbanization.14 Unless planned and managed, this development is likely to be accompanied by an equally powerful tsunami of disaster risk.

Figure 11.8 Urban growth in geographical regions

(Source: UNDESA, 2014b

UNDESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2014b,World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Highlights. United Nations, New York.. .

	225 projected growth will not take place in the megacities of Asia, but in “middleweight” cities such as Foshan in China and Surat in India (Dobbs et al., 2012 x Dobbs, Richard, Jaana Reemes, James Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, Sven Smit and Fabian Schaer. 2012,Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, McKinsey Global Institute. June 2012.. . ). These cities are projected to contribute two-thirds of global growth by 2025 (ibid.) and to host more than half of the world’s middle or “consuming” class (ibid.).12 The combination of speculative urban development for a wealthy minority with informal urbanization for a low-income majority in cities with weak capacities for urban planning and management is likely to continue to drive urban disaster risk. In the coming decades, most urban growth is likely to occur in regions like South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 11.8); without radical change, it will epitomize the growth in segregated disaster risk. Many countries in these regions have relatively weak urban governance. Governance and system failures to support regulatory functions have undermined the quality of building controls and created significant vulnerabilities. These include the insufficient quality of underlying laws and regulations;13 ineffective administration; insufficient qualifications on the part of local building code officials, local designers and contractors; an inadequate focus on risk management; opaque, bureaucratic procedures; and corruption (GFDRR and UN-Habitat, 2014). For example, India is projected to see its number of urban dwellers increase by 404 million over the next 35 years, which means that around 50 per cent of the country’s population will live in cities by 2050 (UNDESA, 2014b x UNDESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2014b,World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Highlights. United Nations, New York.. . ). In sub-Saharan Africa, similar growth rates mean that 55 per cent of the region’s population will live in urban areas by 2050 (ibid.). This represents what has been described as a tsunami of urbanization.14 Unless planned and managed, this development is likely to be accompanied by an equally powerful tsunami of disaster risk. Figure 11.8 Urban growth in geographical regions (Source: UNDESA, 2014b x UNDESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2014b,World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Highlights. United Nations, New York.. . .)	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 215 Page 216 Page 217 Page 218 Page 219 Page 220 Page 221 Page 222 Page 223 Page 224 Page 225 Page 226 ->Page 227 Page 228 Page 229 Page 230 Page 231 Page 232 Page 233 Page 234 Page 235 Page 236 Page 237 Page 238 Page 239 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310