GAR 2015 Main Report

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and eco-cities, these plans promise to modernize African cities and turn them into gateways for international investment. The need to attract investment is without question. However, it is unclear how these plans will benefit the urban population living in informal settlements, below the poverty line and with minimal access to urban services (Watson, 2014

Watson, Vanessa. 2014,African urban fantasies: dreams or nightmares? Environment and Urbanization, Vol, 26, No. 1: 215-231.. .

Economic growth and intensive disaster risk

Economic growth and urbanization go hand in hand. In general, the countries with the highest GDP per capita are those with the largest proportion of their population living in cities (Satterthwaite and Mitlin, 2014

Satterthwaite, David and Diana Mitlin. 2014,Reducing Urban Poverty in the Global South, USA and Canada: Routledge Publishing.. .

; Figure 11.3). In low and middle-income countries, rapid urbanization is generally associated with rapid economic growth (IPCC, 2014

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014,Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.. .

As such, urban growth accompanies global investment flows and increases the value of exposed assets in hazard-exposed areas, such as

cyclone and tsunami-prone coastlines and river basins. A recent risk analysis of 616 major metropolitan areas comprising 1.7 billion people (nearly 25 per cent of the world’s total population) and approximately half of global GDP found that flood risk threatens more people than any other hazard (Swiss Re, 2014b). River flooding poses a threat to over 379 million urban residents, while earthquake and strong winds could potentially affect 283 million and 157 million, respectively (UNHabitat, 2014).

This exposes whole cities and city regions to intensive hazards (UNISDR, 2011a

UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

; 2013a). As highlighted in Chapter 10, disaster risk is rarely taken into account in investment decisions, while rapid urban development can overwhelm the capacity of city governments to manage growth. For example, amongst the 611 cities with over 750,000 inhabitants in 2010, 47 had populations that had grown twentyfold since 1960 and 120 had populations that had grown more than

Figure 11.2 Hope City, Accra, and Tatu City, Nairobi

A more likely scenario is the emergence of new informal settlements outside the new cities. Public investment in these new projects may leave less cash for basic infrastructure and services and could accelerate further social and spatial segregation.

(Source: Watson, 2014

Watson, Vanessa. 2014,African urban fantasies: dreams or nightmares? Environment and Urbanization, Vol, 26, No. 1: 215-231.. .

(Source: Watson, 2014

Watson, Vanessa. 2014,African urban fantasies: dreams or nightmares? Environment and Urbanization, Vol, 26, No. 1: 215-231.. .

At present, while these new plans have created interest for developers and investors, many have been stalled by disputes and court cases related to land acquisition, financing and resettlement. However, the benefits to the urban population currently living in informal settlements in prime locations near urban centres are unclear.

	215 and eco-cities, these plans promise to modernize African cities and turn them into gateways for international investment. The need to attract investment is without question. However, it is unclear how these plans will benefit the urban population living in informal settlements, below the poverty line and with minimal access to urban services (Watson, 2014 x Watson, Vanessa. 2014,African urban fantasies: dreams or nightmares? Environment and Urbanization, Vol, 26, No. 1: 215-231.. . ). Economic growth and intensive disaster risk Economic growth and urbanization go hand in hand. In general, the countries with the highest GDP per capita are those with the largest proportion of their population living in cities (Satterthwaite and Mitlin, 2014 x Satterthwaite, David and Diana Mitlin. 2014,Reducing Urban Poverty in the Global South, USA and Canada: Routledge Publishing.. . ; Figure 11.3). In low and middle-income countries, rapid urbanization is generally associated with rapid economic growth (IPCC, 2014 x IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014,Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.. . ). As such, urban growth accompanies global investment flows and increases the value of exposed assets in hazard-exposed areas, such as cyclone and tsunami-prone coastlines and river basins. A recent risk analysis of 616 major metropolitan areas comprising 1.7 billion people (nearly 25 per cent of the world’s total population) and approximately half of global GDP found that flood risk threatens more people than any other hazard (Swiss Re, 2014b). River flooding poses a threat to over 379 million urban residents, while earthquake and strong winds could potentially affect 283 million and 157 million, respectively (UNHabitat, 2014). This exposes whole cities and city regions to intensive hazards (UNISDR, 2011a x UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . ; 2013a). As highlighted in Chapter 10, disaster risk is rarely taken into account in investment decisions, while rapid urban development can overwhelm the capacity of city governments to manage growth. For example, amongst the 611 cities with over 750,000 inhabitants in 2010, 47 had populations that had grown twentyfold since 1960 and 120 had populations that had grown more than Figure 11.2 Hope City, Accra, and Tatu City, Nairobi A more likely scenario is the emergence of new informal settlements outside the new cities. Public investment in these new projects may leave less cash for basic infrastructure and services and could accelerate further social and spatial segregation. (Source: Watson, 2014 x Watson, Vanessa. 2014,African urban fantasies: dreams or nightmares? Environment and Urbanization, Vol, 26, No. 1: 215-231.. . .) (Source: Watson, 2014 x Watson, Vanessa. 2014,African urban fantasies: dreams or nightmares? Environment and Urbanization, Vol, 26, No. 1: 215-231.. . .) At present, while these new plans have created interest for developers and investors, many have been stalled by disputes and court cases related to land acquisition, financing and resettlement. However, the benefits to the urban population currently living in informal settlements in prime locations near urban centres are unclear.	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 205 Page 206 Page 207 Page 208 Page 209 Page 210 Page 211 Page 212 Page 213 Page 214 Page 215 Page 216 ->Page 217 Page 218 Page 219 Page 220 Page 221 Page 222 Page 223 Page 224 Page 225 Page 226 Page 227 Page 228 Page 229 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310