Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015
Making development sustainable: The future of disaster risk management

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Through changing temperatures, precipitation and sea levels, amongst other factors, global climate change is already modifying hazard levels and exacerbating disaster risks.

By 2050, it is estimated that 40 per cent of the global population will be living in river basins that experience severe water stress, particularly in Africa and Asia. In the Caribbean basin, climate change will contribute an additional US$1.4bn to the expected annual losses from cyclone wind damage alone. ( → Chapter 3 )
The effects of climate change are not evenly distributed, however. It will affect different countries in different ways. For example, the risk from wind damage would double in Anguilla and increase fivefold in Trinidad and Tobago. In contrast, Mexico would actually see a reduction in its risk.

Although "climate change is very likely to have an overall negative effect on yields of major cereal crops across Africa” (IPCC), strong regional variability in the degree of yield reduction is anticipated.

Losses in maize production from a 1-in-25-year drought in Malawi could be 23 per cent higher in the years 2016 to 2035 than they were from 1981 to 2010. Given that agriculture contributes 30 per cent to Malawi’s GDP, this could push the country over a resilience threshold in terms of the national economy as well as poverty. However, in the Rift Valley in Kenya and in Niger, where agriculture generates 30 and 38 per cent of GDP (respectively), the losses would actually decline in the same climate change scenario.( → Chapter 3 )
The ecological footprint from the unsustainable overconsumption of energy and natural capital now exceeds the planet’s biocapacity by nearly 50 per cent. Coastal wetlands declined by 52 per cent between the 1980s and early 2000s. Other critical regulatory ecosystems such as mangrove forests and coral reefs are also degrading at a rapid pace. ( → Chapter 12 )
Climate change will increase expected future
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