GAR 2015 Main Report

Through changing temperatures, precipitation and sea levels, amongst other factors, global climate change is already modifying hazard levels and exacerbating disaster risks.

By 2050, it is estimated that 40 per cent of the global population will be living in river basins that experience severe water stress, particularly in Africa and Asia. In the Caribbean basin, climate change will contribute an additional US$1.4bn to the expected annual losses from cyclone wind damage alone. ( → Chapter 3 )

The effects of climate change are not evenly distributed, however. It will affect different countries in different ways. For example, the risk from wind damage would double in Anguilla and increase fivefold in Trinidad and Tobago. In contrast, Mexico would actually see a reduction in its risk.

Although "climate change is very likely to have an overall negative effect on yields of major cereal crops across Africa” (IPCC), strong regional variability in the degree of yield reduction is anticipated.

Losses in maize production from a 1-in-25-year drought in Malawi could be 23 per cent higher in the years 2016 to 2035 than they were from 1981 to 2010. Given that agriculture contributes 30 per cent to Malawi’s GDP, this could push the country over a resilience threshold in terms of the national economy as well as poverty. However, in the Rift Valley in Kenya and in Niger, where agriculture generates 30 and 38 per cent of GDP (respectively), the losses would actually decline in the same climate change scenario.( → Chapter 3 )

The ecological footprint from the unsustainable overconsumption of energy and natural capital now exceeds the planet’s biocapacity by nearly 50 per cent. Coastal wetlands declined by 52 per cent between the 1980s and early 2000s. Other critical regulatory ecosystems such as mangrove forests and coral reefs are also degrading at a rapid pace. ( → Chapter 12 )

Climate change will increase expected future

losses.

	vi Through changing temperatures, precipitation and sea levels, amongst other factors, global climate change is already modifying hazard levels and exacerbating disaster risks. By 2050, it is estimated that 40 per cent of the global population will be living in river basins that experience severe water stress, particularly in Africa and Asia. In the Caribbean basin, climate change will contribute an additional US$1.4bn to the expected annual losses from cyclone wind damage alone. ( → Chapter 3 ) The effects of climate change are not evenly distributed, however. It will affect different countries in different ways. For example, the risk from wind damage would double in Anguilla and increase fivefold in Trinidad and Tobago. In contrast, Mexico would actually see a reduction in its risk. Although "climate change is very likely to have an overall negative effect on yields of major cereal crops across Africa” (IPCC), strong regional variability in the degree of yield reduction is anticipated. Losses in maize production from a 1-in-25-year drought in Malawi could be 23 per cent higher in the years 2016 to 2035 than they were from 1981 to 2010. Given that agriculture contributes 30 per cent to Malawi’s GDP, this could push the country over a resilience threshold in terms of the national economy as well as poverty. However, in the Rift Valley in Kenya and in Niger, where agriculture generates 30 and 38 per cent of GDP (respectively), the losses would actually decline in the same climate change scenario.( → Chapter 3 ) The ecological footprint from the unsustainable overconsumption of energy and natural capital now exceeds the planet’s biocapacity by nearly 50 per cent. Coastal wetlands declined by 52 per cent between the 1980s and early 2000s. Other critical regulatory ecosystems such as mangrove forests and coral reefs are also degrading at a rapid pace. ( → Chapter 12 ) Climate change will increase expected future losses.	Page 1 Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 ->Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310